Match Info

Gaucho - Round 6

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Francisco Novelletto Neto (Porto Alegre)


	Monsoon		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.63	2.63	Watch
	2.72	2.78	2.78	Watch
	2.91	2.72	2.84
	2.86	2.75	2.81	Watch
	2.8	2.5	2.63
	2.8	2.62	2.7	Watch
	2.9	2.62	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.25)	2.66 ↓ (2.93)	2.75 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monsoon
32.4%

Draw
34.3%

São Luiz
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

31.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

31.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monsoon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monsoon's form might have worsened.

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Luiz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monsoon than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monsoon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Luiz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Monsoon - São Luiz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Pavan (G) 2. Medina F. 3. Hiago Cena 14. Ricardo Thalheimer 6. Para 8. Vinicius Garcia 5. Jonathan Cabeca 10. Jean Carlo (C) 11. Matheus Candido 9. Fabinho Polhao 7. Caio Rangel	1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 2. Lucas Hian 4. Gabriel Santiago 21. Eduardo 16. Higor 8. Araujo (C) 5. Lucas Hulk 7. Escuro 25. Vidmar 11. DG 9. Felipe Rangel
Substitutes
21. Anderson 23. Anderson Paraiba 17. Banguele 15. Camargo 19. Hannyel 18. Leo Hanna 20. Luan Santos 12. Marcelo Ribeiro (G) 22. Rick Sena 16. Talyssson Lalau 4. Yago Alves 13. Yuri Bigode	13. Caetano 15. Denis Germano 18. Felipe Tontini 6. Marcio Duarte 12. Prezzi (G) 14. Rogerio Sena 19. Thiago Santos 10. Valber Junior 17. Victor Jesus 20. Weverson
Coaches
Baier P.	Marques P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', Vinicius Garcia 🟨,
22', Medina F. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Hiago Cena (Own goal),
33', Gabriel Oliveira 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Fabinho Polhao ⚽, Para (A),
41', Fabinho Polhao 🟨,
45+6', 2 - 1, Fabinho Polhao (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', DG ↓, Rogerio Sena ↑,
46', Vidmar ↓, Rogerio Sena ↑,
59', Medina F. ↓, Leo Hanna ↑,
59', Fabinho Polhao ↓, Hannyel ↑,
60', Lucas Hulk ↓, Felipe Tontini ↑,
62', 2 - 2, Escuro ⚽,
65', Leo Hanna 🟨,
68', Matheus Candido ↓, Anderson ↑,
68', Jonathan Cabeca ↓, Luan Santos ↑,
73', Felipe Rangel ↓, Denis Germano ↑,
75', Caio Rangel ↓, Rick Sena ↑,
86', Rogerio Sena ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
90+1', Luan Santos 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monsoon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.01.26	Juventude - Monsoon	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Monsoon	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Monsoon - Avenida	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Monsoon - Internacional RS	0:4 ✺
10.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LWTLT
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.01.26	São Luiz - Ypiranga	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
14.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - São Luiz	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLTT

Monsoon - São Luiz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide