Match Info

J.League Cup - First stage - 1/32-finals

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Montedio Yamagata		Yokohama F. Marinos

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.5	1.45
	5.00	4.00	1.50
	5.7	4.3	1.47	Watch
	6.28	4.55	1.49
	6.2	4.66	1.44
	6.2	4.2	1.47
	6.08	4.25	1.47	Watch
	5.4	4.2	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.7 ↑ (4.44)	4.33 ↑ (4.13)	1.47 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
16.1%

Draw
21.2%

Yokohama F. Marinos
62.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.5%

22.1%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

21.5%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Yokohama F. Marinos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yokohama F. Marinos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yokohama F. Marinos than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Yokohama FM will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montedio Yamagata (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shibuya T. (G) 13. Nodake H. 22. Shirowa H. 49. Sakamoto K. 6. Yamada T. 20. Yoshio Kaina 88. Thalisson 55. Horikane S. 18. Yokoyama R. 11. Disaro A. S. 14. Yanagimachi K.	21. Iikura H. (G) 34. Kimura T. 17. Quinones J. 33. Suwama K. 35. Sekitomi K. 41. Matsumura K. 28. Yamane R. 47. Miidera S. 40. Amano J. 23. Miyaichi R. 43. Nitta R.
Substitutes
16. Hasegawa K. (G) 15. Kawai A. 77. Kawana R. 25. Kokubu S. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 39. Mori K. 5. Sugii H. 23. Tanaka S. 17. Terayama T.	36. Blanco R. (G) 14. Chinen K. 11. Croux J. 26. David D. 54. Fujii S. 13. Inoue T. 8. Kida T. 24. Kondo T. 7. Tono D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Miidera S. ↓, Kondo T. ↑,
12', Disaro A. S. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Nitta R. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', Sakamoto K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Thalisson ↓, Kawai A. ↑,
57', Nodake H. 🟨,
60', Kondo T. 🟨,
61', Yokoyama R. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Matsumura K. ⚽, Miyaichi R. (A),
68', Yamada T. ↓, Sugii H. ↑,
68', Yanagimachi K. ↓, Kawana R. ↑,
70', Nitta R. ↓, David D. ↑,
70', Miyaichi R. ↓, Tono D. ↑,
73', Kimura T. 🟨,
74', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
77', Suwama K. ↓, Fujii S. ↑,
77', Kimura T. ↓, Inoue T. ↑,
87', Nodake H. ↓, Kokubu S. ↑,
87', Yamane R. ↓, Kida T. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Horikane S. ⚽, Kawana R. (A),

Preview

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Montedio Yamagata may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Yokohama FM is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Montedio Yamagata has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 0.7:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Montedio Yamagata against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals (averaging 0.5:1 per game).

Outrights of Japan J League Cup for now

Yokohama F. Marinos: 3%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Tochigi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
05.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLWL
- Yokohama F. Marinos
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
11.07.15	Yokohama F. Marinos - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
Japan Nabisco Cup
03.06.15	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2
Japan J1 League
02.05.15	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0

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