Match Info

J2 League - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.3	2.32	Watch
	2.70	3.20	2.25
	2.75	3.2	2.32	Watch
	2.96	3.4	2.47
	2.86	3.46	2.35	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.4
	2.88	3.31	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.66)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	2.36 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
32.7%

Draw
28%

Sagan Tosu
39.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

26.7%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Sato R. (G) 15. Kawai A. 38. Morioka R. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 5. Sugii H. 17. Terayama T. 7. Nakamura R. 8. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 9. Takahashi J. 25. Kokubu S.	1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 44. Abe K. 33. Ogawa S. 28. Yoshida M. 21. Toyoda A. 6. Sakurai T. 11. Shiohama R. 20. Nakahara H. 18. Hyon R. 9. Takahashi T.
Substitutes
11. Disaro A. S. 55. Horikane S. 39. Mori K. 13. Nodake H. 49. Sakamoto K. 1. Shibuya T. (G) 14. Yanagimachi K. 18. Yokoyama R. 20. Yoshio Kaina	42. Goto H. 4. Imazu Y. 47. Izawa R. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 2. Matsumoto N. 16. Nishizawa K. 7. Sakamoto K. 10. Suzuki D. 43. Yoshino K.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Kogiku A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Takahashi J. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Kida R. ⚽, Doi S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nakahara H. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
46', Hyon R. ↓, Izawa R. ↑,
56', Shiohama R. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
59', Kokubu S. ↓, Yokoyama R. ↑,
64', Sakurai T. ↓, Nishizawa K. ↑,
74', Yoshida M. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
75', Doi S. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
75', Terayama T. ↓, Nodake H. ↑,
82', Lee Dong-Hee 🟨,
90+4', Kida R. ↓, Yanagimachi K. ↑,
90+4', Takahashi J. ↓, Disaro A. S. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 11th and 15th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Tosu may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Montedio Yamagata has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:12 (averaging 1.6:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Montedio Yamagata against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 2:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sagan Tosu	11	4	2	5	11:13	-2	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	4	1	7	11:11	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Montedio Yamagata - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.41%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
19.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Tochigi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
05.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Imabari - Montedio Yamagata	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWLW
- Sagan Tosu
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
19.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Iwaki	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Imabari - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Nara Club - Sagan Tosu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
30.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	3:2
25.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
14.11.15	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	4:3
Japan J1 League
16.08.15	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	1:3
12.04.15	Sagan Tosu - Montedio Yamagata	1:0

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