Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Monterey Bay		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.6	4.4
	1.71	3.55	4.6
	1.7	3.6	5.12
	1.71	3.52	5.07	Watch
	1.65	3.72	4.84	Watch
	1.71	3.55	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.47)	3.59 ↓ (4.15)	4.77 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
54.9%

Draw
25.8%

Miami
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

22.3%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

22.9%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.

Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Monterey Bay - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campuzano N. (G) 22. Garcia J. 2. Gordon N. (C) 5. Guzman C. 28. Guediri S. 11. Malango M. 6. Fonguck W. 7. Rebollar A. 9. Larsson A. 31. Ivanovic L. 20. Paul I.	31. Rodriguez F. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 13. Knutson D. 21. Akinyode B. 8. Romero M. 5. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 4. Cardona N. 18. Zarate T. 7. Gavilanes A. 10. Blanco S. 9. Bonfiglio F.
Substitutes
17. Archimede L. 8. Bryant E. 13. Fehr M. 14. Gallaway P. 18. Gomez S. (G) 4. Lara A. 15. Lyons M.	34. Arana V. 22. Celeste F. 19. Lawrence M. 12. Martell R. (G) 26. Melano L. 3. Mitrano A. 17. Rivera R. 30. Vazquez C. 11. Veron D.
Coaches
Stewart J.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Paul I. ⚽, Malango M. (A),
17', Paul I. 🟨,
19', Zarate T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Ricketts J. 🟨,
56', Paul I. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
56', Gavilanes A. ↓, Melano L. ↑,
57', Zarate T. ↓, Lawrence M. ↑,
60', Guzman C. 🟨,
68', Guzman C. ↓, Lara A. ↑,
68', Larsson A. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
73', Cardona N. ↓, Veron D. ↑,
73', Blanco S. ↓, Vazquez C. ↑,
77', Mercado Carrizo D. A. ↓, Rivera R. ↑,
78', Ivanovic L. ↓, Gallaway P. ↑,
78', Guediri S. ↓, Lyons M. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Bonfiglio F. ⚽, Vazquez C. (A),
90+5', Rivera R. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Monterey Bay has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Miami is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Miami has had a series of away games.

In this match, Monterey Bay is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
23.04.25	New Mexico United - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Monterey Bay - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Detroit City - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.25	Monterey Bay - El Farolito	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTWTL
- Miami FC
USL Cup
26.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami	3:3 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Miami - North Carolina	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	1:0 ET ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	San Antonio - Miami	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.25	Inter Miami II - Miami	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 37.1 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
31.08.24	Miami - Monterey Bay	1:0
24.06.23	Monterey Bay - Miami	1:0
24.09.22	Miami - Monterey Bay	0:0

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