Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Riccardo Silva Stadium (Miami, FL)

Referee: Yaya A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Miami		North Carolina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.65
	3.9	3.5	1.85
	4.1	3.49	1.89
	4.17	3.56	1.84	Watch
	4.24	3.37	1.86	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.09 ↓ (5.12)	3.5 ↓ (4.19)	1.82 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami
22.7%

Draw
26.5%

North Carolina
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

22.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

21.3%

57.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and North Carolina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that North Carolina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Miami - North Carolina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Hamid B. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 13. Knutson D. 21. Akinyode B. 30. Bent B. 8. Romero M. 5. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 11. Veron D. 7. Gavilanes A. 10. Blanco S. 9. Bonfiglio F.	1. McGuire J. (G) 14. Rafa Mentzingen 66. Sundstrom F. 5. Craig P. (C) 55. Hodge T. 10. Servania J. 16. Da Costa R. 15. Maldonado M. 44. Sommersall R. 7. Conway E. 9. Anderson O.
Substitutes
4. Cardona N. 22. Celeste F. 16. Diaz G. 29. Hoyos K. 23. Mas T. 26. Melano L. 3. Mitrano A. 31. Rodriguez F. (G) 18. Zarate T.	19. Al Qaq A. 11. Burner P. 26. Luckhurst A. 17. Martin C. 24. Mulqueen T. (G) 8. Pedro Becker 13. Perez L. 71. Quintanilla J. 27. Washington B.
Coaches
Maddoni G.	Bradford J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. ⚽,
25', Hodge T. 🟨,
26', 2 - 0, Knutson D. ⚽, Gavilanes A. (A),
29', Mercado Carrizo D. A. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Craig P. ⚽, Maldonado M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Blanco S. ↓, Melano L. ↑,
65', Bent B. ↓, Mitrano A. ↑,
65', Mercado Carrizo D. A. ↓, Cardona N. ↑,
68', Servania J. ↓, Burner P. ↑,
68', Sommersall R. ↓, Pedro Becker ↑,
69', Veron D. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
74', Da Costa R. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
80', Gavilanes A. ↓, Zarate T. ↑,
82', Zarate T. 🟨,
85', Craig P. ↓, Al Qaq A. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Miami won 1.

Recent matches Miami is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

North Carolina is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Miami could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently North Carolina have a series of guest games.

In this match North Carolina is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Miami won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:17 (average 1:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Miami won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:8 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami FC
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	1:0 ET ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	San Antonio - Miami	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.25	Inter Miami II - Miami	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
29.03.25	Miami - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Miami - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LWWLL
- North Carolina FC
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Charlotte Independence - North Carolina	1:3 ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	New Mexico United - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	2:2 ✺
29.03.25	North Carolina - Charleston Battery	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Tulsa - North Carolina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
06.07.24	North Carolina - Miami	4:1
25.05.24	Miami - North Carolina	0:4
NASL
15.08.17	North Carolina - Miami	0:1
05.08.17	Miami - North Carolina	2:3
04.07.17	North Carolina - Miami	1:0
22.04.17	Miami - North Carolina	1:1
25.03.17	North Carolina - Miami	1:1

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