Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Campo Hernandez C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lexington		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.20	5.75
	1.47	4.25	5.7
	1.52	4.38	6.3
	1.47	4.46	6.04	Watch
	1.45	4.55	6.1
	1.52	4.19	5.77	Watch
	1.47	4.1	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.56)	4.3 ↑ (4.02)	5.89 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
62.8%

Draw
21.5%

Monterey Bay
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

22.8%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

21.9%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Lexington - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.	98. Jackson J. (G) 22. Garcia J. 5. Gordon N. (C) 32. Farnsworth Z. 17. Glasgow O. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 15. Barajas F. 88. Lletget S. 20. Paul I. 24. Saidi A.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 14. Caborn A. 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 4. Ordonez A. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G) 13. Tschantret M.	18. Belmar J. 31. Dalton C. (G) 25. Egwu K. 47. Elliot Q. 11. Leggett W. 21. Otoya D. 3. Ritchie S.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Covelo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Lletget S. ⚽,
6', Zengue X. 🟨,
14', Nakamura R. 🟨,
26', 0 - 2, Barajas F. ⚽, Lletget S. (A),
29', 1 - 2, Rodrigues B. P. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
42', 2 - 2, Nakamura R. (Own goal),
45+2', Ross N. ↓, Belmar J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
57', Hemmi M. 🟨,
72', Ferri B. ↓, Tschantret M. ↑,
76', Barajas F. ↓, Leggett W. ↑,
76', Saidi A. ↓, Otoya D. ↑,
82', 3 - 2, Scott T. ⚽,
83', Paul I. ↓, Ritchie S. ↑,
85', Nakamura R. ↓, Elliot Q. ↑,
86', Elliot Q. 🟨,
88', Garcia J. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

Recent performances by Lexington have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Monterey Bay is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lexington is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lexington won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
25.07.26	Tulsa - Lexington	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Lexington - Oakland Roots	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Louisville City - Lexington	4:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Lexington	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWLLW
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
25.07.26	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Monterey Bay - Las Vegas Lights	2:3 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	San Antonio - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
08.05.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:1
07.06.25	Monterey Bay - Lexington	2:1
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0

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