Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside)

Referee: Da Silva A. (Usa)


	Monterey Bay		Rio Grande Valley

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.4	2.8
	2.17	3.35	3
	2.29	3.45	3.02
	2.2	3.5	2.89	Watch
	2.13	3.55	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.3)	3.45 ↑ (3.4)	2.93 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
42.1%

Draw
26.6%

Rio Grande Valley
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.4%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

25.4%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Rio Grande Valley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Monterey Bay - Rio Grande Valley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Monterey Bay has the most likely position - 10 (14.5%), project points - 41, currently - 11, a chance of playoffs (46%), a small chance of qtrs (14%), a very small chance of semis (5%), a very small chance of final (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Rio Grande Valley has the most likely position - 12 (23.46%), project points - 37, currently - 6, a chance of playoffs (29%), a small chance of qtrs (9%), a very small chance of semis (3%), a very small chance of final (1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 11, small importance 22, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Monterey Bay in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Rio Grande Valley is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Monterey Bay could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Monterey Bay won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Monterey Bay won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
US Open Cup
25.04.23	Monterey Bay - San Jose Earthquakes	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
22.04.23	Indy Eleven - Monterey Bay	2:3 ✺
15.04.23	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	Monterey Bay - New Mexico United	4:2 ✺
US Open Cup
05.04.23	Central Valley Fuego - Monterey Bay	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WWTWW
- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
22.04.23	Rio Grande Valley - Memphis 901	0:3 ✺
15.04.23	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rio Grande Valley	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
05.04.23	South Georgia Tormenta - Rio Grande Valley	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
01.04.23	Detroit City - Rio Grande Valley	0:1 ✺
24.03.23	Rio Grande Valley - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
24.03.23	Rio Grande Valley - Monterey Bay	1:1
15.10.22	Rio Grande Valley - Monterey Bay	4:1
14.05.22	Monterey Bay - Rio Grande Valley	1:2

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