Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Referee: Koroleva E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, SportsEngine Play


	Phoenix Rising		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.50	3.20
	1.76	3.50	3.80
	2.03	4.11	3.30
	1.97	3.86	3.3	Watch
	2.00	4.05	3.15
	1.95	3.68	3.18	Watch
	1.93	3.60	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (1.98)	3.76 ↑ (3.49)	3.32 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
47.6%

Draw
24.6%

Monterey Bay
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

25.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Monterey Bay aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Phoenix Rising will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Monterey Bay (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Monterey Bay (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rakovsky P. (G) 11. Studenhofft G. 87. Flores D. 4. Mar Boye P. 20. Biasi L. 13. Moursou J. 8. Gomez D. 10. Avayevu H. 17. JP Scearce 7. Sacko I. 23. Badji D.	98. Jackson J. (G) 47. Elliot Q. 5. Gordon N. (C) 32. Farnsworth Z. 17. Glasgow O. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 11. Leggett W. 88. Lletget S. 19. Nadje C. 24. Saidi A.
Substitutes
27. Ambursley C. 28. Arase K. 12. Dennis C. 68. Irwin J. 14. Odunze C. (G) 24. Pelayo A. 44. Ping J. 37. Rivera G. 2. Smith C.	15. Barajas F. 18. Belmar J. 31. Dalton C. (G) 25. Egwu K. 22. Garcia J. 7. Rebollar A. 3. Ritchie S.
Coaches
Kah P.	Covelo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Nadje C. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Badji D. ⚽, Moursou J. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Saidi A. ⚽,
43', Flores D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, JP Scearce (Own goal),
60', Flores D. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
60', Avayevu H. ↓, Ambursley C. ↑,
60', Studenhofft G. ↓, Arase K. ↑,
61', Leggett W. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
72', Mar Boye P. 🟨,
74', Badji D. ↓, Dennis C. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Arase K. ⚽, Gomez D. (A),
79', Biasi L. ↓, Pelayo A. ↑,
80', Elliot Q. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Nakamura R. (Own goal),
88', Ross N. ↓, Belmar J. ↑,
88', Nadje C. ↓, Ritchie S. ↑,
90+1', Kah P. 🟥,
90+3', Belmar J. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 2.

Phoenix Rising is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Monterey Bay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Phoenix Rising is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix Rising won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Cup
11.07.26	AV Alta - Phoenix Rising	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Phoenix Rising	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots	3:4 ✺
13.06.26	El Paso Locomotive - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Phoenix Rising - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLTL
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Cup
11.07.26	Monterey Bay - Las Vegas Lights	2:3 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	San Antonio - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
17.06.26	Tulsa - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	Monterey Bay - Sporting Jacksonville	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
17.05.25	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	2:0
29.03.25	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	3:1
04.10.24	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	1:2
16.03.24	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	1:0
29.07.23	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	0:2
15.04.23	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	1:1
21.09.22	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	3:3

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