Match Info

ITALY: SERIE C - GROUP B - ROUND 25

Date: 31 January 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri (Montevarchi)


	Montevarchi		Ancona

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.95	1.98	Watch
	3.6	2.85	2.05
	3.1	2.8	2.24
	3.89	2.91	1.88
	3.7	2.88	2.05
	3.98	3.18	1.92	Watch
	3.1	2.95	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.03)	2.93 ↑ (2.8)	2.06 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevarchi
25.4%

Draw
30.8%

Ancona
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

32.4%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

32.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevarchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ancona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ancona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ancona than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ancona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	11.1%	83.3%

Montevarchi - Ancona Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Montevarchi will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Ancona will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ancona: 66.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs).

Montevarchi is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ancona is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ancona will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Montevarchi won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Montevarchi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
28.01.23	Fermana - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
22.01.23	Montevarchi - Siena	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Montevarchi - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
08.01.23	Olbia - Montevarchi	2:1 ✺
23.12.22	Montevarchi - Gubbio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLLLW
- US Ancona 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
28.01.23	Ancona - Vis Pesaro	1:1 ✺
22.01.23	Gubbio - Ancona	0:1 ✺
15.01.23	Fiorenzuola - Ancona	0:1 ✺
09.01.23	Ancona - Pontedera	3:0 ✺
23.12.22	Siena - Ancona	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
02.10.22	Ancona - Montevarchi	1:2
20.02.22	Montevarchi - Ancona	3:1
16.10.21	Ancona - Montevarchi	2:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
21.08.21	Ancona - Montevarchi	2:1 penalties

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