Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Montevarchi		Foligno

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.15	2.32
	2.74	3.05	2.5	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.4
	2.77	3.02	2.38
	2.66	3	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.44)	3.02 ↓ (3.43)	2.43 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevarchi
33.1%

Draw
29.8%

Foligno
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

26.3%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

26.4%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevarchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Foligno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Foligno than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Montevarchi - Foligno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group E (Play Offs: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Montevarchi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Montevarchi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Montevarchi	6	2	1	3	9:11	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
21.12.25	Montevarchi - Prato	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Montevarchi - Siena	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Terranuova Traiana - Montevarchi	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Montevarchi - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWLT
- Foligno
Italian Serie D - Group E
21.12.25	Cannara - Foligno	2:4 ✺
14.12.25	Foligno - Seravezza Pozzi	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Foligno - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Prato - Foligno	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Foligno - Ghiviborgo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
07.09.25	Foligno - Montevarchi	4:2
14.04.21	Montevarchi - Foligno	3:0
23.12.20	Foligno - Montevarchi	2:1
15.12.19	Foligno - Montevarchi	0:1

Montevarchi - Foligno: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide