Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Montevideo Wanderers		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.40	1.65	Watch
	4.33	3.50	1.73
	4.00	3.30	1.80
	5.15	3.78	1.74
	4.57	3.62	1.76	Watch
	5.05	3.70	1.67
	4.72	3.57	1.73	Watch
	4.40	3.55	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↑ (3.7)	3.55 ↑ (3.35)	1.73 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo Wanderers
20.2%

Draw
26.1%

Nacional Montevideo
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

27.8%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

26.7%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Buffa A. (G) 17. Garcia A. 2. Cabral N. 13. Formiliano F. (C) 6. Zazpe L. 31. Furtado N. 5. Queiroz N. 21. Benitez S. 16. Alberti J. 30. Labandeira F. 24. Zeballos J.	1. Mejia L. (C) 13. Ancheta E. 2. Rogel A. 5. Calvo F. 21. Candido C. 23. Rodriguez L. 6. Boggio L. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 20. Botta R. 31. Martinez R. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
14. Acosta M. 27. Blengio L. 3. Borthagaray G. 28. Hernandez T. 11. Luna J. 15. Mencia Hernandez D. J. 8. Oriol S. 9. Ormeno S. 12. Rio J. (G) 7. Rivero R.	29. Correa T. 10. Dos Santos A. 22. Martin A. (G) 14. Martinez A. 37. Rodriguez L. 7. Rodriguez N. 8. Silva S. 27. Veron T. 32. Viera T. 36. Zuculini B.
Coaches
Corujo M.	Carreno D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Martinez R. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Silvera M. ⚽,
69', Garcia A. ↓, Mencia Hernandez D. J. ↑,
69', Zazpe L. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
70', Botta R. ↓, Silva S. ↑,
76', Alberti J. ↓, Ormeno S. ↑,
80', Silvera M. 🟨,
81', Correa T. 🟨,
84', Labandeira F. ↓, Rivero R. ↑,
84', Furtado N. ↓, Hernandez T. ↑,
86', Silvera M. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
86', Candido C. ↓, Viera T. ↑,
90', Ancheta E. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Benitez S. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 1.

Wanderers has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nacional is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wanderers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nacional is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 16:39. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Wanderers won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.8:1.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Montevideo Wanderers - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 25.17%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.03%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.08.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Central Español	3:0 ✺
23.08.26	Montevideo City Torque - Montevideo Wanderers	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTWL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
27.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
17.07.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2
13.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0
26.10.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
26.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1
15.09.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	0:2
02.03.24	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0
26.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1

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