Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Fernandez A. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	18:30	Disney+
Mexico	15:30	Disney+
Peru	16:30	Disney+
Uruguay	18:30	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	17:30	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	17:30	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.20	6.25	Watch
	1.42	4.40	6.25
	1.43	4.10	6.25
	1.47	4.48	7.44
	1.45	4.43	6.79	Watch
	1.45	4.35	6.95
	1.42	4.59	6.83	Watch
	1.42	4.40	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.41)	4.37 ↓ (4.51)	6.7 ↓ (7.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
64.9%

Draw
21.2%

Progreso
13.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.2%

20.7%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

15.6%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Nacional Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 7. Rodriguez N. 2. Rogel A. 4. Coates S. (C) 5. Calvo F. 36. Zuculini B. 23. Rodriguez L. 27. Veron T. 10. dos Santos A. 29. Correa T. 9. Gomez M.	1. Bacchia R. (G) 16. Trasante G. 13. Carroso H. 6. Saravia M. 15. Martin M. 24. Alvarez E. 5. Pinheiro A. (C) 21. Bruschi S. 7. Ocampo A. 17. De Leon F. 8. Juambeltz M.
Substitutes
13. Ancheta E. 6. Boggio L. 20. Botta R. 21. Candido C. 19. De Los Santos J. 22. Martin A. (G) 31. Martinez R. 8. Silva S. 11. Silvera M. 32. Viera T.	11. Acosta N. 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 4. Couture L. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 3. Garcia F. 18. Silva G. 19. Silva J. 14. Viana L.
Coaches
Carreno D.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Bruschi S. 🟨,
29', Saravia M. 🟨,
31', Saravia M. 🟨,
34', Bruschi S. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
36', dos Santos A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zuculini B. ↓, Boggio L. ↑,
46', dos Santos A. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
46', Veron T. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
65', Juambeltz M. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
65', De Leon F. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
70', Rogel A. ↓, Botta R. ↑,
76', Alvarez E. ↓, Couture L. ↑,
76', Ocampo A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
77', Silva J. 🟨,
79', Correa T. ↓, Silvera M. ↑,
84', Bacchia R. 🟨,
87', Calvo F. 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, Silvera M. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 4.

Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Progreso's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nacional is the obvious favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:12. (average 2.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Nacional	11	7	2	2	17:11	6	23
9	Progreso	11	5	1	5	12:13	-1	16

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 66.16%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.08.26	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.07.26	Tigre - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Nacional Montevideo - Tigre	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWWL
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.08.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Central Español - Progreso	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
11.07.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
02.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	2:1
21.02.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
22.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:2 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.08.25	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	3:1
23.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0
16.02.25	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	1:5
29.09.24	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:3

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