Match Info

National League North - Round 7

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)


	Morecambe		Buxton

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.50	2.30
	2.50	3.30	2.35
	2.45	3.35	2.43
	2.70	3.70	2.42
	2.55	3.68	2.46	Watch
	2.65	3.65	2.30
	2.60	3.64	2.44
	2.60	3.45	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.37)	3.53 ↑ (3.48)	2.38 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
35.6%

Draw
25.9%

Buxton
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

25.9%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

26.2%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-3%)

Morecambe - Buxton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Daly M. ⚽,
62', 2 - 0, Newby E. ⚽,
78', 3 - 0, Daly M. ⚽,
86', 4 - 0, Buckley I. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 8).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Morecambe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Morecambe: 6.07% Buxton: 4.86%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14:9	5	14

Last Results with these Odds

Morecambe - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.13%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Buxton - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 35.92%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English National League North
31.08.26	Chester - Morecambe	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Morecambe - AFC Telford United	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Radcliffe - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Morecambe - South Shields	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Harborough Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLL
- Buxton FC
English National League North
31.08.26	Buxton - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Oxford City - Buxton	2:3 ✺
22.08.26	Buxton - Hebburn Town	1:2 ✺
18.08.26	Bedford Town - Buxton	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Southport - Buxton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
04.12.21	Buxton - Morecambe	0:1

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