Match Info

National League North - Round 6

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: The Silverlands (Buxton)


	Buxton		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.60	4.00	4.00
	1.61	3.90	4.10
	1.63	3.85	4.10
	1.68	4.32	4.30
	1.66	4.32	4.21	Watch
	1.65	4.25	4.15
	1.62	4.00	4.31
	1.64	4.10	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.63)	4.09 ↑ (3.85)	4.16 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buxton
55.8%

Draw
22.3%

Merthyr Town
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

23.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

22.6%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Buxton - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Weston T. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Foulston J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', 2 - 1, Trueman W. ⚽,

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Recently, Buxton has had a series of away games.

In this match, Buxton is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Buxton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Buxton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Buxton: 4.86% Merthyr Town: 1.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buxton FC
English National League North
28.08.26	Oxford City - Buxton	2:3 ✺
22.08.26	Buxton - Hebburn Town	1:2 ✺
18.08.26	Bedford Town - Buxton	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Southport - Buxton	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Buxton	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLT?
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
29.08.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	South Shields - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
18.08.26	Merthyr Town - AFC Telford United	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Worcester City - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
28.02.26	Merthyr Town - Buxton	1:3
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Buxton - Merthyr Town	2:0

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