Match Info

National League - Round 15

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Morecambe		Southend United

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.53
	4.95	4.25	1.55
	6.28	4.75	1.45
	25.00	12.23	1.04	Watch
	4.97	4.15	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.24 ↑ (5.08)	5.88 ↑ (3.78)	1.43 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
11.1%

Draw
17.4%

Southend United
71.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

24.4%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

21.9%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Morecambe's form might have worsened.

Southend United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Southend United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Morecambe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (-20.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Southend United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Morecambe - Southend United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Blackman J. (G) 2. Payne L. 5. Kacurri M. 6. Francillette L. 10. Cain J. 8. Azeez M. 7. Edwards G. (C) 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 32. Thomas G. 36. Nolan J. 21. Nuttall J.	30. Andeng Ndi C. (G) 2. Scott-Morriss G. 16. Taylor H. 6. Goodliffe B. 3. Ralph N. (C) 33. Boyes H. 22. Appiah-Forson K. 23. Morton 10. Austin S. 9. Dallas A. 18. Spasov S.
Substitutes
1. Mair A. (G) 11. Muskwe A. 33. Raikhy A. 24. Songo'o Y. 28. Sutton E. 18. Tollitt B. 15. Williams B.	7. Bridge J. 19. Chambers-Parillon L. 28. Coker O. 15. Gubbins J. 1. Hayes N. (G) 17. Miley C. 11. Walker J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Edwards G. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Spasov S. ⚽, Appiah-Forson K. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Goodliffe B. ⚽, Boyes H. (A),
45', Nuttall J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Dixon-Bonner E. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
64', Dallas A. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
64', Austin S. ↓, Coker O. ↑,
65', Spasov S. ↓, Chambers-Parillon L. ↑,
79', Nuttall J. ↓, Muskwe A. ↑,
79', Nolan J. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,
79', Appiah-Forson K. ↓, Miley C. ↑,
86', Payne L. ↓, Sutton E. ↑,
90', Kacurri M. 🟨,
90+3', Taylor H. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 3, Walker J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 4.

Morecambe is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Southend has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Southend may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Southend is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Morecambe won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English FA Cup
14.10.25	Chester - Morecambe	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Morecambe - Chester	1:1 ✺
English National League
07.10.25	Scunthorpe United - Morecambe	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Tamworth - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Morecambe - Gateshead	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTLTL
- Southend United
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Southend United - Folkestone Invicta	4:1 ✺
English National League
04.10.25	Southend United - Aldershot Town	3:0 ✺
30.09.25	Boreham Wood - Southend United	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Eastleigh - Southend United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
06.04.21	Morecambe - Southend United	1:1
26.09.20	Southend United - Morecambe	1:2
02.05.15	Morecambe - Southend United	3:1
04.10.14	Southend United - Morecambe	0:1
08.03.14	Morecambe - Southend United	2:1
English FA Cup
09.11.13	Morecambe - Southend United	0:3
English League Two
07.09.13	Southend United - Morecambe	1:3

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