Match Info

National League - Round 13

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Morecambe		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.45
	2.48	3.6	2.48
	2.31	4.02	2.72
	25.00	13.95	1.00	Watch
	2.46	3.64	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.94 ↑ (2.53)	5.74 ↑ (3.7)	2.22 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
18.7%

Draw
22.7%

Gateshead
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

24.8%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

24.4%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Morecambe's form might have worsened.

Gateshead has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gateshead's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Morecambe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (-19.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gateshead, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Morecambe - Gateshead Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Gateshead will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Morecambe (votes: 1 - 25%). Gateshead (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mair A. (G) 12. Aarons R. 8. Azeez M. 10. Cain J. 3. Conte R. 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 36. Nolan J. 9. Panayiotou H. 2. Payne L. 14. Sesay A. 24. Songo'o Y. (C)	1. Brooks T. (G) 7. Adom K. 10. Butterfield J. 32. Chapman H. 22. Edwards C. 3. Ferguson D. 18. Grayson J. 20. John F. 14. Nouble F. 26. Pani C. 5. Richardson K.
Substitutes
35. Ascroft H. 7. Edwards G. 6. Francillette L. 33. Raikhy A. 28. Sutton E. 32. Thomas G. 18. Tollitt B.	35. Bone C. 6. Flint W. 17. Home J. 21. Hurst K. 13. Leech P. (G) 16. Lowery L. 31. Williams B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
2', 0 - 1, Chapman H. ⚽, Butterfield J. (A),
4', 0 - 2, Adom K. ⚽, Edwards C. (A),
10', 0 - 3, Pani C. ⚽, Butterfield J. (A),
12', 0 - 4, Chapman H. ⚽, Grayson J. (A),
24', Conte R. ↓, Thomas G. ↑,
34', 1 - 4, Thomas G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Panayiotou H. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,
46', Butterfield J. ↓, Home J. ↑,
55', Richardson K. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
60', Sesay A. 🟨,
62', Chapman H. ↓, Hurst K. ↑,
69', Sesay A. ↓, Francillette L. ↑,
72', 1 - 5, Pani C. ⚽, Ferguson D. (A),
75', Grayson J. ↓, Flint W. ↑,
75', Adom K. ↓, Lowery L. ↑,
80', Nouble F. 🟨,
82', Aarons R. ↓, Edwards G. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 5, Payne L. ⚽, Nolan J. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Gateshead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Gateshead - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.77%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English National League
27.09.25	Truro City - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
24.09.25	Morecambe - Halifax Town	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Morecambe - Wealdstone	4:3 ✺
13.09.25	Solihull Moors - Morecambe	4:4 ✺
06.09.25	Boreham Wood - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWTL
- Gateshead
English National League
27.09.25	Braintree Town - Gateshead	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Gateshead - Halifax Town	1:2 ✺
English National League Cup
17.09.25	Gateshead - Middlesbrough U21	0:2 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Wealdstone - Gateshead	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLLT

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