Match Info

National League - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Roots Hall (Southend on Sea)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southend United		Aldershot Town

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	6
	1.38	4.5	6
	1.4	4.85	6.3
	1.36	5.34	7.15
	1.16	7.03	13.84	Watch
	1.38	4.65	7.08
	1.38	4.5	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.43)	5.09 ↑ (4.6)	7.45 ↑ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southend United
69.1%

Draw
18.4%

Aldershot Town
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

20.1%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

19.4%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southend United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Aldershot Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Southend United - Aldershot Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Andeng Ndi C. (G) 2. Scott-Morriss G. 16. Taylor H. 6. Goodliffe B. 3. Ralph N. (C) 33. Boyes H. 22. Appiah-Forson K. 23. Morton 10. Austin S. 9. Dallas A. 11. Walker J.	1. Dewhurst M. (G) 24. Mullins M. 5. Jackson B. 15. Penman C. 12. Anderson K. 28. Taylor A. 30. Abrahams T. 19. Hill R. 18. Rai K. 9. Thomas K. 10. Barrett J. (C)
Substitutes
7. Bridge J. 28. Coker O. 15. Gubbins J. 1. Hayes N. (G) 14. Hopper T. 17. Miley C. 18. Spasov S.	32. Clarridge J. 23. Ghandour H. 7. Hargreaves C. 17. Henry J. 16. Nash P. (G) 6. Widdrington T.
Coaches
Maher K.	Widdrington T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Dallas A. ⚽,
41', Ralph N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
67', Rai K. ↓, Widdrington T. ↑,
67', Mullins M. ↓, Clarridge J. ↑,
70', Walker J. ↓, Spasov S. ↑,
70', Austin S. ↓, Coker O. ↑,
72', Scott-Morriss G. 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Spasov S. ⚽, Boyes H. (A),
75', Jackson B. ↓, Hargreaves C. ↑,
75', Anderson K. ↓, Henry J. ↑,
75', Abrahams T. ↓, Ghandour H. ↑,
80', Scott-Morriss G. ↓, Bridge J. ↑,
80', Dallas A. ↓, Hopper T. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Ralph N. ⚽, Bridge J. (A),
89', Morton ↓, Miley C. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Southend won 2.

Southend has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aldershot's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aldershot may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Southend is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Southend won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Southend won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southend United
English National League
30.09.25	Boreham Wood - Southend United	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Eastleigh - Southend United	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Southend United - Boston United	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Southend United - Halifax Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLTW
- Aldershot Town
English National League
30.09.25	Aldershot Town - Braintree Town	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Halifax Town - Aldershot Town	4:2 ✺
24.09.25	Aldershot Town - Yeovil Town	1:4 ✺
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
18.02.25	Southend United - Aldershot Town	2:1
23.10.24	Aldershot Town - Southend United	0:0
24.02.24	Southend United - Aldershot Town	4:1
26.09.23	Aldershot Town - Southend United	1:1
18.03.23	Southend United - Aldershot Town	1:2
26.11.22	Aldershot Town - Southend United	2:0
25.01.22	Aldershot Town - Southend United	1:1

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