Match Info

National League - Round 3

Date: 7 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Attis Arena (Scunthorpe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Scunthorpe United		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	7
	1.31	5.5	7.5
	1.34	5.26	7.91
	1.33	5.17	7.95	Watch
	1.32	5.15	7.75
	1.5	4.5	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.5)	5.14 ↑ (4.45)	7.24 ↑ (5.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Scunthorpe United
69%

Draw
18.1%

Morecambe
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

20.8%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

20.1%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Scunthorpe United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Scunthorpe United's performance.

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Scunthorpe United than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Scunthorpe United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Scunthorpe United - Morecambe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Scunthorpe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Scunthorpe (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Scunthorpe United will win (19 of 19 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Scunthorpe (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Watson R. (G) 21. Starbuck J. 4. Belehouan J. 5. Evans W. 33. Denton T. 10. Roberts C. (C) 8. Beestin A. 17. Ewing O. 11. Rowley J. 9. Whitehall D. 7. Howe D.	1. Mair A. (G) 2. Payne L. 5. Kacurri M. 6. Francillette L. 10. Cain J. 32. Thomas G. 7. Edwards G. (C) 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 8. Azeez M. 12. Aarons R. 18. Tollitt B.
Substitutes
23. Chadwick B. 22. Dawson J. 3. Horton B. 20. Scales K. 16. Sellars-Fleming T. 14. Ubaezuonu C. 25. Westbrooke Z.	35. Ascroft H. (G) 36. Nolan J. 9. Panayiotou H. 33. Raikhy A. 14. Sesay A. 24. Songo'o Y. 28. Sutton E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', Belehouan J. 🟨,
38', Cain J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Roberts C. ⚽, Starbuck J. (A),
42', Dixon-Bonner E. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Whitehall D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Dixon-Bonner E. ↓, Songo'o Y. ↑,
59', Edwards G. ↓, Nolan J. ↑,
63', Ewing O. ↓, Westbrooke Z. ↑,
64', Beestin A. ↓, Scales K. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Tollitt B. ⚽, Cain J. (A),
71', Howe D. ↓, Sellars-Fleming T. ↑,
71', Denton T. ↓, Horton B. ↑,
72', Thomas G. ↓, Sutton E. ↑,
72', Aarons R. ↓, Raikhy A. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Sellars-Fleming T. ⚽, Horton B. (A),
79', Whitehall D. ↓, Dawson J. ↑,
83', Tollitt B. ↓, Panayiotou H. ↑,
84', Payne L. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 24 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scunthorpe won 2.

Scunthorpe is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Morecambe's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Scunthorpe is the obvious favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Scunthorpe won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Scunthorpe won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Scunthorpe United
English National League
04.10.25	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
01.10.25	York City - Scunthorpe United	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Boreham Wood	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Truro City	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LWWTW
- Morecambe
English National League
04.10.25	Tamworth - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Morecambe - Gateshead	2:5 ✺
27.09.25	Truro City - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
24.09.25	Morecambe - Halifax Town	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Morecambe - Wealdstone	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.04.21	Morecambe - Scunthorpe United	4:1
21.11.20	Scunthorpe United - Morecambe	1:1
14.09.19	Scunthorpe United - Morecambe	3:0
English EFL Trophy
06.12.16	Scunthorpe United - Morecambe	2:1 penalties
English League Two
18.04.14	Morecambe - Scunthorpe United	1:1
21.12.13	Scunthorpe United - Morecambe	2:0

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