Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	V+ TVI


	Moreirense		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.5
	2.18	3.05	3.45
	2.13	3.27	3.87
	1.15	5.69	40.00	Watch
	2.21	3.08	3.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.18)	3.67 ↑ (3.3)	10.89 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
58.4%

Draw
31.1%

Casa Pia
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

28.3%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.2%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+17.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Moreirense - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Casa Pia (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caio (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 44. Marcelo (C) 27. Kiko 11. Alanzinho 8. Stjepanovic M. 15. Sousa V. 2. Travassos 95. Guilherme Schettine 10. Kiko Bondoso	1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. (C) 27. Kaique Rocha 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 74. Nhaga R. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 21. Morais T.
Substitutes
25. Assis A. 66. Batista G. 20. Bernardo 13. Ferreira A. (G) 30. Gower J. 78. Landerson 17. Martinez A. 7. Teguia C. 99. Yan Maranhao	22. Azevedo D. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 8. Brito R. 90. Cassiano 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 9. Svensson M.
Coaches
Costa V.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Livolant J. ⚽, Conte A. (A),
10', Conte A. ↓, Benaissa-Yahia F. ↑,
14', 1 - 1, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Kiko (A),
36', Alanzinho 🟨,
37', Benaissa-Yahia F. 🟨,
45+1', Kiko Bondoso 🟨,
45+4', Marcelo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Sequeira P. ↓, Azevedo D. ↑,
53', Morais T. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
62', Travassos ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
62', Sousa V. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
66', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
68', Sousa D. 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Bernardo ⚽,
77', Alanzinho ↓, Assis A. ↑,
77', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Landerson ↑,
82', Nhaga R. ↓, Svensson M. ↑,
82', Kaique Rocha ↓, Cassiano ↑,
84', Perez S. 🟨,
85', Kiko ↓, Batista G. ↑,
90+3', Guilherme Schettine 🟨,
90+4', Bernardo 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Moreirense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Inactive) Rodri (Inactive)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mandic I. (Inactive) Nsona K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Oukili Y. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
22.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Moreirense - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Santa Clara - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 LWLWW
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	3:2
14.09.24	Casa Pia - Moreirense	3:1
12.05.24	Casa Pia - Moreirense	0:1
08.01.24	Moreirense - Casa Pia	1:4

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