Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 25

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Mosta		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
	4.85	4.05	1.52
	4.07	4.56	1.58
	4.39	4.63	1.55	Watch
	5	4	1.5
	5.54	4.4	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.77 ↓ (6.01)	4.33 ↓ (4.4)	1.52 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mosta
19.1%

Draw
21%

Marsaxlokk
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

20.9%

63.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.7%

20.1%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mosta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Marsaxlokk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marsaxlokk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mosta - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Udoh A. (G) 10. Giancarlo 14. Joao Victor 23. Kozic A. 96. Leo Fernandes 41. Pedro Cacho 7. Portelli N. 16. Sciberras G. 74. Vassallo J. (C) 31. Willian 42. Zibo S.	22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 16. Arias U. 23. Caruana T. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 9. Linden R. 28. Mihana R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E.
Substitutes
3. Bolanos M. 5. Cachia S. 9. Diamanka C. 18. Farrugia A. 33. Farrugia B. 99. Farrugia J. (G) 13. Luke U. 30. Marmara Z. 29. Oderinde C. 94. Vassallo S. 11. Zammit K. II	14. Attard E. 15. Borg I. 1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 34. Christie-Davies I. 18. Galea N. 8. Ghio J. 19. Kirby J. 26. Maniscalco M. 33. Simkus D. 12. Vella D. (G) 21. Vella J.
Coaches
Grech J.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, Pedro Cacho ⚽,
30', Aguirre L. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Dodo ⚽,
40', Caruana T. ↓, Ghio J. ↑,
42', 1 - 2, Dodo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kozic A. ↓, Diamanka C. ↑,
56', Muscat N. 🟨,
69', Arias U. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
76', Joao Victor ↓, Bolanos M. ↑,
77', Sciberras G. ↓, Farrugia B. ↑,
86', Zibo S. ↓, Zammit K. II ↑,
90', Linden R. ↓, Kirby J. ↑,
90', Dodo ↓, Christie-Davies I. ↑,
90+3', Farrugia B. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mosta won 3.

Mosta is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Marsaxlokk's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Marsaxlokk is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Mosta won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:15. (average 2.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mosta won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
6	Mosta	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
22.02.26	Gżira United - Mosta	1:0 ✺
18.02.26	Mosta - Tarxien Rainbows	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Mosta - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Mosta - Sliema Wanderers	0:1 ✺
04.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTLL
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
23.02.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Marsaxlokk - Paola Hibernians	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Marsaxlokk	1:2 ✺
03.02.26	Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
17.08.25	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	3:1
04.04.25	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	0:4
14.02.25	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	2:1
Maltese FA Trophy
11.01.25	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	0:3
Maltese Premier League
23.09.24	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	2:4
03.03.24	Marsaxlokk - Mosta	1:2
28.10.23	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	3:2

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