Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Motagua		Alianza San Miguel

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.51	3.70	5.50
	1.52	3.70	5.25
	1.55	3.85	5.78
	1.55	3.88	5.98	Watch
	1.52	3.7	5.55
	1.49	3.64	6.42	Watch
	1.47	3.9	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.74)	3.77 ↑ (3.6)	5.78 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
60.1%

Draw
24.2%

Alianza San Miguel
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

25.8%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

25.4%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motagua's performance.

Alianza San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Motagua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Motagua - Alianza San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Motagua will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 35. Melendez C. (C) 34. Sacaza G. 4. Vega L. 17. Portillo J. 5. Discua O. 23. Reyes A. 27. Macias J. 8. Melendez D. 21. Batiz J. 19. De Olivera R.	13. Gonzalez M. (G) 14. Parra W. 16. Romero H. (C) 3. Sibrian J. 19. Rodriguez Arias N. A. 6. Orellana N. 26. Rivera N. 10. Menjivar L. 8. Osorio H. 56. Romero D. 7. Mier M.
Substitutes
42. Argueta J. 14. Barrios A. 3. Cacho P. 26. Crisanto L. 24. Garcia J. 10. Gomez R. 15. Hernandez A. 25. Licona M. (G) 36. Marinacci V. 30. Miranda J. 80. Oliva D. 16. Palma C.	24. Aguirre M. 18. Barreto J. 17. Castillo F. 15. Flores W. 31. Franco D. (G) 41. Guardado Ardon E. R. 20. Henriquez A. 29. Hernandez E. 1. Joya M. (G) 23. Monteagudo J. 30. Rivas Linares E. A. 45. Tobar L.
Coaches
Lopez J.	Pompei R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Sibrian J. 🟥,
13', Rivera N. ↓, Monteagudo J. ↑,
30', 1 - 0, Discua O. ⚽, Melendez D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Macias J. ⚽,
55', Batiz J. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
58', Romero D. ↓, Aguirre M. ↑,
59', Mier M. ↓, Castillo F. ↑,
60', Monteagudo J. 🟨,
65', Melendez D. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
77', De Olivera R. ↓, Barrios A. ↑,
77', Portillo J. ↓, Marinacci V. ↑,
79', Menjivar L. ↓, Barreto J. ↑,
79', Osorio H. ↓, Henriquez A. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, Reyes A. ⚽,
90', Orellana N. 🟨,
90+2', Melendez C. 🟨,
90+4', Rodriguez Arias N. A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Alianza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Alianza has had a series of away games.

In this match, Motagua is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Motagua won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Motagua - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.45%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
05.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Motagua	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Motagua - Olancho	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
25.08.26	Municipal - Motagua	1:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
21.08.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Motagua	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWTWL
- Alianza San Miguel
El Salvador Primera Division
06.09.26	Águila - Alianza San Miguel	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Alianza San Miguel - Atlético Balboa	2:0 ✺
26.08.26	Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca - Alianza San Miguel	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Isidro Metapán - Alianza San Miguel	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
19.08.26	CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League
04.11.20	Alianza San Miguel - Motagua	1:2 penalties
31.10.19	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0
24.10.19	Alianza San Miguel - Motagua	1:1

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