Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 8

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Motor Lublin		Termalica Nieciecza

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3.2
	2.1	3.55	3.05
	2.17	3.74	3.33
	1.40	4.61	7.63	Watch
	2.08	3.65	3.35	Watch
	2.32	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.38)	3.71 ↑ (3.2)	3.84 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
48.2%

Draw
26.4%

Termalica Nieciecza
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.9%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motor Lublin's performance.

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Termalica Nieciecza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Motor Lublin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Termalica Nieciecza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Termalica will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Termalica (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 7. Rodrigues I. 21. Labojko J. (C) 68. Wolski B. 26. Krol M. 9. Czubak K. 19. van Hoeven B.	99. Mleczko M. (G) 29. Isik G. 2. Kopacz B. (C) 5. Masoero L. 21. Hilbrycht D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 13. Kubica K. 6. Wolski M. 7. Fassbender M. 25. Zapolnik K. 8. Kurzawa R.
Substitutes
11. Fabio Ronaldo 23. Haxha F. 99. Kukulski P. (G) 16. Lewandowski F. 2. Meyer P. 30. Ndiaye M. 47. Palacz K. 6. Samper S. 8. Scalet M. 17. Wojcik F.	27. Boboc R. 1. Chovan A. (G) 35. Deisadze D. 26. Jakubik W. 9. Jimenez J. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 23. Mini 77. Putivtsev A. 86. Strzalek I. 53. Trubeha A.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Brosz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Czubak K. ⚽, van Hoeven B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Labojko J. ↓, Samper S. ↑,
46', Kubica K. ↓, Mini ↑,
46', Kurzawa R. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
46', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
59', Fassbender M. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
59', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
60', van Hoeven B. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Jimenez J. (Pen),
65', Bartos M. 🟨,
69', Wolski M. 🟨,
74', Wolski B. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
74', Krol M. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
81', Samper S. 🟨,
81', Ambrosiewicz M. 🟨,
85', Zapolnik K. 🟨,
85', Wolski M. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
90+4', Jakubik W. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Motor has had a series of away games.

Motor will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Motor: Najemski A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Termalica: Kasperkiewicz A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Motor: Fabio Ronaldo (Injury) Wolski B. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Motor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Motor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Motor Lublin - Piast Gliwice	0:0 ✺
11.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	3:3 ✺
26.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLTTL
- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Korona Kielce	1:3 ✺
22.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
08.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
24.02.24	Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0
13.08.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin	0:2

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