Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 4, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.98
	3.55	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.81	3.56	2.02
	3.95	3.15	2.03	Watch
	3.75	3.25	1.95
	3.8	3.48	1.96	Watch
	3.75	3.45	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	3.39 ↑ (3.15)	1.97 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
25.1%

Draw
27.6%

Raków Częstochowa
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

29.3%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

29%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	8.3%	83.3%

Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Raków (3.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Raków Częstochowa will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Raków Częstochowa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Raków (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Mleczko M. (G) 29. Isik G. 2. Kopacz B. (C) 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 21. Hilbrycht D. 13. Kubica K. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 6. Wolski M. 23. Mini 9. Jimenez J. 7. Fassbender M.	1. Trelowski K. (G) 66. Konstantopoulos A. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 5. Bulat M. 6. Repka O. 11. Adriano 19. Ameyaw M. 8. Pienko T. 17. Rocha L.
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 27. Boboc R. 1. Chovan A. (G) 35. Deisadze D. 26. Jakubik W. 8. Kurzawa R. 5. Masoero L. 77. Putivtsev A. 86. Strzalek I. 55. Thiago Dombroski 53. Trubeha A.	88. Barath P. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 28. Diaz J. 10. Lopez I. 2. Mosor A. 26. Otieno E. 14. Plavsic S. 20. Silva J. 23. Struski K. 48. Zych O. (G)
Coaches
Brosz M.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Jimenez J. ⚽, Mini (A),
8', Bulat M. 🟨,
14', 1 - 1, Ameyaw M. ⚽, Pienko T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ameyaw M. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
46', Repka O. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
46', Tudor F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
46', Kasperkiewicz A. ↓, Masoero L. ↑,
56', Mini ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
66', Pienko T. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
66', Fassbender M. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
66', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Bulat M. ⚽,
72', Diaby-Fadiga L. 🟨,
74', 1 - 3, Rocha L. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
80', Kubica K. 🟨,
80', Barath P. 🟨,
81', 2 - 3, Strzalek I. ⚽,
84', Adriano ↓, Otieno E. ↑,
86', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
89', Isik G. 🟨,
89', Lopez I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Termalica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Raków might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Lopez I. (Knee Injury) Silva J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Termalica: Zapolnik K. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:15. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
25.07.25	Cracovia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:0 ✺
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Termalica Nieciecza - ŁKS Łódź	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WTLWT
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Maccabi Haifa - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
07.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Maccabi Haifa	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Žilina - Raków Częstochowa	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.06.25	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.04.22	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	0:3
Polish Cup
01.12.21	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.10.21	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	3:2
Polish Cup
30.10.20	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
Polish Division 1
17.03.19	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0
26.08.18	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	0:1

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