Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 7

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Mtarfa		Fgura United

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.5	1.62
	2.8	3.15	2.33	Watch
	2.41	3.56	2.55	Watch
	2.5	3.13	2.57
	2.8	3.15	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (4.42)	3.3 ↓ (3.7)	2.28 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mtarfa
30.8%

Draw
28.3%

Fgura United
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

24.7%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

24.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mtarfa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mtarfa's performance.

Fgura United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fgura United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mtarfa than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mtarfa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fgura United than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fgura United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mtarfa - Fgura United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mtarfa (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mtarfa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mtarfa (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tabone F. (C) 97. Agbakwuru J. C. 8. Azzopardi A. 17. Cutajar C. 10. Falzon D. 22. Fenech K. P. 6. Grech J. 9. Hassan J. 7. Mensah E. 13. Micallef M. 14. Senna Azzopardi A.	14. Vella R. (G) 16. Akande T. 12. Brincat M. 7. Caruana D. (C) 21. Formosa K. 22. Gambin M. 28. Gatt M. 33. Marshall A. N. 99. Okito Lundula E. 3. Pisani L. 45. Tabone M.
Substitutes
20. Abela Paris Z. 11. Azzopardi A. 3. Azzopardi Z. 5. Dalli C. 15. Galea K. 4. Matheus Freitas 12. Spagnol Z. 23. Tonna R.	4. Abdelghani H. 54. Bartolo B. 1. Cini Y. (G) 13. Desira G. 25. Formosa R. 9. John I. 15. Pullicino M. 5. Xuereb A. 77. Zammit M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Agbakwuru J. C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Akande T. ⚽,
50', 2 - 1, Agbakwuru J. C. ⚽,
51', Falzon D. 🟨,
54', Hassan J. ↓, Matheus Freitas ↑,
59', Formosa K. ↓, Xuereb A. ↑,
59', Marshall A. N. ↓, John I. ↑,
61', Micallef M. ↓, Azzopardi Z. ↑,
65', 🟨,
79', Gambin M. ↓, Abdelghani H. ↑,
83', Brincat M. ↓, Formosa R. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Agbakwuru J. C. ⚽,
87', Azzopardi A. ↓, Tonna R. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Xuereb A. ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Mtarfa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fgura is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Mtarfa have a series of guest games.

In this match Fgura is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Mtarfa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Mtarfa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mtarfa FC
Maltese Challenge League
06.04.25	Gudja United - Mtarfa	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	Mtarfa - St. Andrews	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Żebbuġ Rangers - Mtarfa	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Sirens - Mtarfa	1:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge Cup
27.02.25	Mġarr United - Mtarfa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WLWTL
- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
05.04.25	Fgura United - Sirens	5:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lija Athletic - Fgura United	2:3 ✺
09.03.25	Fgura United - Senglea Athletic	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Fgura United - Żebbuġ Rangers	5:1 ✺
22.02.25	Gudja United - Fgura United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
22.09.24	Mtarfa - Fgura United	1:2
12.02.23	Fgura United - Mtarfa	1:1
01.11.22	Mtarfa - Fgura United	0:2

Mtarfa - Fgura United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide