Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 35

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)


	Málaga		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	5.25
	1.55	3.5	5.25
	1.57	3.75	5.5
	1.61	4.16	4.96
	1.63	3.63	5.25
	1.58	3.55	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.46)	3.68 ↓ (3.79)	5.27 ↓ (6.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
57.8%

Draw
24.9%

Mérida AD
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

24.1%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

24.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Málaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Málaga - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (G) 3. Puga C. 20. Monte N. 5. Juande 14. Garcia V. 16. Rodriguez G. 6. Enriquez R. 7. Ferreiro D. 22. Lorenzo D. 11. Villodres K. 17. Dioni	1. Juanpa (G) 19. Felipe 12. Falcon E. 4. Bonaque M. 21. Llacer L. 23. Rodriguez D. 15. Juanjo 5. Acosta L. 7. Sandoval D. 17. Alvaro J. 9. Chuma
Substitutes
9. Aviles J. 26. Cordero A. 2. Gabilondo J. 4. Galilea E. 8. Juanpe 10. Larrubia D. 13. Lopez C. (G) 15. Moussa D. 25. Murillo D. 35. Ochoa A. 18. Sanchez D. 23. Sangalli L.	14. Beneit R. 16. Martin J. 2. Midon D. 11. Mizzian M. 8. Ndongo N. 18. Padilla J. 3. Prada R. 10. Serra D. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Rodriguez D. ⚽,
22', Enriquez R. ↓, Larrubia D. ↑,
32', Alvaro J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Villodres K. ↓, Cordero A. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Dioni ⚽,
64', Alvaro J. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
70', Garcia V. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
73', Llacer L. 🟨,
75', Juanjo ↓, Beneit R. ↑,
75', Chuma ↓, Mizzian M. ↑,
78', Sandoval D. 🟨,
79', Acosta L. 🟨,
83', Martin J. 🟨,
86', Monte N. 🟨,
86', Puga C. ↓, Gabilondo J. ↑,
86', Rodriguez G. ↓, Juanpe ↑,
86', Sandoval D. ↓, Prada R. ↑,
86', Rodriguez D. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,
90+3', Prada R. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 15).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Málaga is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Málaga won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.04.24	Córdoba - Málaga	1:0 ✺
21.04.24	Málaga - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
14.04.24	Atlético Madrid B - Málaga	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Málaga - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
31.03.24	Málaga - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTWTT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.04.24	Mérida AD - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
21.04.24	Melilla - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
13.04.24	Mérida AD - Algeciras	3:1 ✺
07.04.24	Granada B - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
30.03.24	Mérida AD - Córdoba	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.12.23	Mérida AD - Málaga	1:2

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