Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.71	4.10	4.40
	1.8	3.95	4.35
	1.81	4.1	4.3
	1.77	4.13	4.46	Watch
	1.72	3.95	4.25
	1.8	4.18	4.33
	1.82	4.1	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.79)	4.06 ↑ (4.01)	4.3 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
54.1%

Draw
23.6%

Villarreal
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

23.7%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

23.3%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Borussia Dortmund aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.5%	7.3%	1.2%

Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Villarreal (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

1X2 - Borussia Dortmund (1.75) (votes: 95%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Anytime Goalscorer - Serhou Guirassy (1.87) (votes: 91%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Borussia Dortmund & Yes (3.00) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (75 of 82 users predict this - 91.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.41% – 97.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 18 - 81.8%). Villarreal (votes: 2 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 22. Gadou J. 3. Anton W. (C) 24. Svensson D. 26. Ryerson J. 25. Veerman J. 8. Nmecha F. 14. Beier M. 19. Karetsas K. 20. Sabitzer M. 9. Guirassy S.	25. Gulacsi P. (G) 15. Mourino S. 6. Navarro P. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. (C) 18. Gueye P. 24. Saliba N. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 9. Mikautadze G.
Substitutes
41. Albert M. 7. Bellingham J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 30. Drewes P. (G) 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Nwaneri E. 36. Prates K. 49. Reggiani L. 21. Silva F.	11. Akhomach I. 2. Costa L. 5. Diatta A. 3. Freeman A. 13. Gomez R. (G) 1. Luiz Junior (G) 16. Macia C. 10. Moleiro A. 7. Moreno G. 19. Pepe N. 22. Perez A.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Karetsas K. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
38', Anton W. 🟨,
38', Navarro P. 🟨,
42', Cardona S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Cardona S. ↓, Freeman A. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Veiga R. (Own goal),
59', Saliba N. ↓, Pepe N. ↑,
59', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Mourino S. ⚽, Mikautadze G. (A),
75', Buchanan T. ↓, Diatta A. ↑,
75', Sabitzer M. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
75', Nmecha F. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
82', Beier M. ↓, Prates K. ↑,
82', Nwaneri E. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
83', Navarro P. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
83', Mourino S. 🟨,
85', 3 - 1, Guirassy S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', 3 - 2, Guirassy S. (Own goal),

Preview

Borussia D is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Villarreal has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Red Card) Can E. (Knee Injury) Kaba M. (Injury) Konstantelias G. (Knee Injury) Lerma J. (Muscle Injury) Mane F. (Muscle Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Red Card)

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Injury) Romero C. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Dortmund: 1.4% Villarreal: 1.04%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3:2	1	3
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Dortmund - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 53.14%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.09.26	HEBC Hamburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
German Super Cup
22.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Roma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLT
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Villarreal - Deportivo A Coruña	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Racing Santander - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.26	Villarreal - Levante	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	4:0
Club Friendly
06.08.24	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	2:2
22.07.22	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	0:2

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