Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 30

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.32	3.05	2.98
	2.41	3.1	3.22
	2.38	3.06	3.1	Watch
	2.35	2.83	3.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.39)	3.03 ↓ (3.04)	3.1 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
39.5%

Draw
30.6%

Ferrol
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.7%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

30.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Mérida AD - Ferrol Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ferrol will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 5. Dominguez J. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 8. Solar M. 6. Geovanny 11. Areso J. 10. Doncel C. 7. Chiqui 14. El Ftouhi S.	1. Parera P. M. (G) 4. Artetxe M. 3. Pujol E. 16. Garcia S. 17. Ramon A. 18. Concha D. 14. Tejera S. 6. Gonzalez F. 7. Alvaro J. 9. Escobar A. 20. Gimenez A.
Substitutes
21. Beneit R. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 12. Gomes R. 9. Hallsson S. 17. Herranz Corral V. 15. Martinez G. 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	19. Azkune E. 12. Chema 11. Dacosta R. 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 8. Gorostidi A. 22. Mardones A. 2. Miguel 5. Noriega J. 21. Tavares M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Concha D. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, El Ftouhi S. ⚽,
15', El Ftouhi S. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Escobar A. ⚽,
44', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 1, Doncel C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Concha D. ↓, Noriega J. ↑,
60', Escobar A. ↓, Azkune E. ↑,
60', Doncel C. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
60', Jacobo R. ↓, Beneit R. ↑,
75', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
75', Chiqui ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
75', Artetxe M. ↓, Miguel ↑,
75', Tejera S. ↓, Dacosta R. ↑,
84', Gimenez A. 🟨,
85', Lancho J. ↓, Pareja L. ↑,
87', Alvaro J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', Pujol E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ferrol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.03.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Mérida AD - CD Guadalajara	1:4 ✺
07.03.26	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLTTW
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.03.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Ferrol - Cacereño	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Ferrol	3:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2
09.04.23	Mérida AD - Ferrol	2:1
27.11.22	Ferrol - Mérida AD	1:1

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