Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+, TVG 2


	Ourense CF		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.7
	2.52	2.98	2.78
	2.64	2.97	2.85
	2.64	2.91	2.89	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	2.55	3.12	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)	2.96 ↓ (3.04)	2.79 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
36%

Draw
31%

Ferrol
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

30%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

30.5%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Ourense CF - Ferrol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 4. Carmona F. (C) 12. Jelbat A. 3. Sanz H. 21. Guerrero A. 18. Rabadan D. 24. Moreno C. 17. Hernandez R. 16. Munoz D. 10. Ochoa M.	1. Parera P. M. (G) 3. Pujol E. 4. Artetxe M. 16. Garcia S. 17. Ramon A. 18. Concha D. 6. Gonzalez F. 14. Tejera S. 11. Dacosta R. 20. Gimenez A. (C) 5. Noriega J.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 7. Bouzaig A. 20. Gueye L. 14. Perez A. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 15. Rivas L. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Sergio Benito 22. Yuste A.	19. Azkune E. 12. Chema 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 8. Gorostidi A. 22. Mardones A. 2. Miguel 10. Pascu 21. Tavares M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Jelbat A. 🟨,
17', Moreno C. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Gimenez A. ⚽,
45+2', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 1, Coto E. ⚽,
57', Moreno C. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
69', Munoz D. ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
69', Ochoa M. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
78', Guerrero A. ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
86', Gimenez A. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
86', Tejera S. ↓, Gorostidi A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 6).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Ourense CF - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.64%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Ourense CF - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLWL
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	Ferrol - Cacereño	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Ferrol	3:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Tenerife - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.25	Ferrol - Ourense CF	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
26.01.19	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1

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