Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Marsa

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.61	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 (1.95)	3.61 (3.61)	3.29 (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
46.9%

Draw
25.3%

Marsa
27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

24.2%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Santa Lucia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Marsa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Santa Lucia - Marsa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Marsa (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Demanuele N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Lucia won 3.

Recent performances by Santa Lucia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marsa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Marsa has had a series of home games.

Santa Lucia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Santa Lucia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Lucia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Santa Lucia	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
08.03.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Santa Lucia - Gudja United	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Santa Lucia - Żebbuġ Rangers	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	St. Andrews - Santa Lucia	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Santa Lucia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWTLW
- Marsa FC
Maltese Challenge League
08.03.26	Marsa - Gudja United	3:3 ✺
28.02.26	Marsa - Mġarr United	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Marsa - Balzan	1:4 ✺
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Marsa - Santa Lucia	2:2
29.03.25	Santa Lucia - Marsa	3:1
15.09.24	Santa Lucia - Marsa	0:5
Maltese FA Trophy
11.01.24	Santa Lucia - Marsa	2:0
Maltese Challenge League
12.01.19	Santa Lucia - Marsa	7:1
Maltese FA Trophy
22.10.17	Marsa - Santa Lucia	0:4

Santa Lucia - Marsa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide