Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.86	2.85	5	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4.33
	1.98	2.88	4.35
	1.99	3.05	5.1
	2.02	2.76	4.81	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4.33
	1.95	2.91	4.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.84)	2.91 ↓ (3.05)	4.65 ↓ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
48%

Draw
32%

Cuiabá
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

30.6%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

29.6%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	40%	10%

Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Náutico: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (C) 93. Reginaldo 25. Mateus Silva 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Wenderson 7. Vinicius 10. Dodo 11. Victor Andrade 9. Paulo Sergio	31. Marcelo Carne (G) 14. Eric Melo 13. Joao Basso 6. Marlon 2. Nino Paraiba 30. Raul (C) 5. Calebe Costa 53. Weverson 41. Kauan Cristtyan 19. Mateus Santos 88. David Miguel
Substitutes
2. Arnaldo 30. Felipe Cardoso 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 29. Junior Todinho 19. Leonai Souza 16. Luiz Claudio 14. Matheus Ribeiro 40. Ramon 41. Samuel Felix 22. Vitinho 34. Wanderson 6. Yuri	7. Asad Y. 50. Felipetto Colen Barcellos P. 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 1. Joao Carlos (G) 91. Luis Soares 8. Pepe 37. Raylan 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues 17. Victor Barbara 29. Vinicius Peixoto
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', David Miguel 🟨,
37', Dodo (Penalty Awarded),
44', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,
46', Nino Paraiba ↓, Raylan ↑,
46', Mateus Santos ↓, Pepe ↑,
58', Victor Andrade ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
58', Mateus Silva ↓, Yuri ↑,
62', Wenderson 🟨,
63', Weverson ↓, Asad Y. ↑,
64', Dodo ↓, Vitinho ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Junior Todinho ⚽, Luiz Felipe (A),
71', Junior Todinho 🟨,
74', Raul 🟨,
77', Luiz Felipe ↓, Leonai Souza ↑,
77', Betao ↓, Wanderson ↑,
80', David Miguel ↓, Victor Barbara ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 16).

Náutico is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cuiabá's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Náutico is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Náutico: Juninho (Injury)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Hernades (Injury) Lorenzo (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Inactive) Vitor Mendes (Injury)

There are questionable in Náutico: Victor Andrade (Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Eliel (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	2:6 ✺
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWTWL
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Cuiabá - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
29.04.26	Anápolis - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.12.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	2:0
29.09.20	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Copa do Brasil
14.03.18	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
28.02.18	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	2:1

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