Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Referee: Gomes A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Operário Ferroviario		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.2	3.05	3.35	Watch
	2.34	3.15	3.54
	2.25	3.09	3.38
	2.1	3	3.5
	2.23	3.05	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.06)	3.06 ↓ (3.1)	3.46 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
42.7%

Draw
30.4%

Náutico Capibaribe
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

30%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

29.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Náutico (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Náutico (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Vagner (G) 2. Mikael Doka 44. Klaus 4. Pool J. 6. Moraes 5. Indio 11. Aylon 100. Neto Paraiba 10. Boschilia (C) 30. Pedro Vilhena 92. Pablo	1. Muriel Becker (C) 93. Reginaldo 34. Wanderson 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Wenderson 7. Vinicius 10. Dodo 11. Victor Andrade 72. Derek
Substitutes
18. Andre 99. Caio Dantas 32. Charles Raphael 28. Dudu Mosconi 1. Elias Curzel (G) 80. Favero 7. Felipe Augusto 27. Gabriel Feliciano 19. Kaua Gomes 39. Matheus Trindade 14. Pereira H. 29. Torres E.	2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 29. Junior Todinho 20. Kevyn Santos 19. Leonai Souza 25. Mateus Silva 14. Matheus Ribeiro 9. Paulo Sergio 41. Samuel Felix 22. Vitinho 6. Yuri
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Pablo ⚽, Aylon (A),
24', Boschilia 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Derek ⚽, Vinicius (A),
28', Derek ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
43', Wanderson 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Reginaldo ⚽, Vinicius (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Pedro Vilhena ↓, Gabriel Feliciano ↑,
46', Aylon ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
53', 1 - 3, Vinicius ⚽, Victor Andrade (A),
57', Moraes ↓, Matheus Trindade ↑,
58', Pool J. ↓, Felipe Augusto ↑,
61', Victor Andrade ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
63', 1 - 4, Junior Todinho ⚽, Paulo Sergio (A),
67', 2 - 4, Boschilia (Penalty Awarded),
68', 2 - 5, Dodo ⚽, Wenderson (A),
76', Neto Paraiba ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
77', Wenderson ↓, Matheus Ribeiro ↑,
78', Pereira H. 🟨,
78', Dodo ↓, Leonai Souza ↑,
78', Luiz Felipe ↓, Samuel Felix ↑,
84', Klaus 🟨,
90+1', Pereira H. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 6, Paulo Sergio ⚽, Junior Todinho (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Náutico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Operário PR is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Operário PR: Brenno Pereira (Inactive) Cuenu J. (Yellow Cards) Miranda (Yellow Cards) Vinicius Diniz (Yellow Cards) Vinicius Mingotti (Inactive) Zuluaga J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Náutico: Juninho (Injury) Paulo Sergio (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Leonai Souza (Inactive) Mateus Silva (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Operário PR won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	44:43	1	48
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Operário Ferroviario - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.15%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Fluminense - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	CRB Maceio - Operário Ferroviario	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Londrina	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
29.07.23	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.22	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
24.04.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	2:0
01.10.21	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
02.07.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	5:0
13.11.20	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1
11.08.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	0:0

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