The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Náutico Marcílio Dias 32.8%
Draw 29.1%
Figueirense 38%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.3%
28%
31.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.5%
28.8%
30.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Marcílio Dias's form might have worsened.
Figueirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Figueirense's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Marcílio Dias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (-7.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Figueirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
88', 2 - 1, ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina Playoffs - Semi - finals and 1st in the Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina Playoffs - Semi - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marcílio Dias won 3.
In recent outings, Marcílio Dias has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Figueirense is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Recently, Marcílio Dias has faced a series of away games on the road.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Marcílio Dias has recorded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:21 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Marcílio Dias against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 14:8 goals (averaging 1.6:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Figueirense ✔
6
4
2
0
8:4
4
14
4
Marcilio Dias
7
3
3
1
17:11
6
12
Last Results with these Odds
Náutico Marcílio Dias - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.25%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.
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