Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rwamwanja stadium (Nkoma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Uganda	Sanyuka TV


	Mbarara City		Villa

	1	X	2
	4.25	2.98	1.85
	3.99	2.89	1.89
	4.93	3.14	1.75	Watch
	4	2.8	1.91
	5.34	3.4	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↓ (5.34)	3.04 ↓ (3.4)	1.81 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mbarara City
20.1%

Draw
29.8%

Villa
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.2%

27%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

26%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mbarara City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mbarara City - Villa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
67', 1 - 0, Kamugisha C. ⚽,
71', 1 - 1, Lwanga C. ⚽,
74', 1 - 2, Lwanga C. ⚽,
81', 1 - 3, Otim A. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mbarara City won 0.

Mbarara City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villa is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mbarara City has had a series of away games.

In this match, Villa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mbarara City won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:27. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mbarara City won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Villa	5	3	2	0	8:2	6	11
16	Mbarara City	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mbarara City FC
Ugandan Super League
06.05.26	Lugazi Municipal - Mbarara City	0:1 ✺
28.04.26	Mbarara City - Express	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	NEC FC - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
09.04.26	UPDF - Mbarara City	3:1 ✺
13.03.26	Bul - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WWTLT
- SC Villa
Ugandan Super League
08.05.26	Villa - Bul	0:0 ✺
Ugandan Cup
04.05.26	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - Villa	0:2 ✺
Ugandan Super League
30.04.26	Kitara - Villa	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Villa - Buhimba United Saints	4:0 ✺
22.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Villa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
28.01.26	Villa - Mbarara City	6:1
16.04.25	Mbarara City - Villa	0:2
16.09.24	Villa - Mbarara City	4:2
30.03.24	Villa - Mbarara City	2:1
25.11.23	Mbarara City - Villa	0:0
19.04.22	Villa - Mbarara City	2:1
30.11.21	Mbarara City - Villa	1:0

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