Match Info

Date: 6 September 2020, Sunday


	Nacional		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.44	4	6	Watch
	1.45	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.4	4.25	6.25
	1.43	4.1	6.2
	1.45	4.63	7.2
	1.42	4.2	7
	1.47	4.3	6.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.43)	4.2 ↑ (4.14)	6.5 ↓ (6.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
64%

Draw
21.9%

Cerro
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.2%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

77.1%

18.5%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	23.1%	23.1%

Nacional - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Cerro will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 34.6% – 73%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 and 16).

Nacional in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cerro is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cerro could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Nacional is absolute favorite.

In this match Nacional is certain favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional	1:2 ✺
26.08.20	Nacional - Progreso	2:1 ✺
23.08.20	Plaza Colonia - Nacional	0:0 ✺
20.08.20	Nacional - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
15.08.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTWW
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.08.20	Cerro - Danubio	1:2 ✺
27.08.20	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	1:1 ✺
23.08.20	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
20.08.20	Cerro - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:2 ✺
16.08.20	Progreso - Cerro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.19	Nacional - Cerro	2:0
30.03.19	Cerro - Nacional	0:2

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