Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 3

Date: 6 June 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Cerro		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.5	2.95	2.8
	2.42	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.27	2.95	2.94
	2.52	2.96	3.02	Watch
	2.62	2.9	2.75
	2.51	3.01	2.96	Watch
	2.42	2.98	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.62)	2.98 ↓ (3)	2.9 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
37.4%

Draw
30.9%

River Plate Montevideo
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

31%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

31%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cerro - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - River Plate (2.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Larrea K. (G) 23. Crespo E. 4. Alvarez E. (C) 5. Villar M. 6. Frugone A. 8. Miranda A. 32. Caceres S. 15. Cuello E. 28. Alonso M. 77. Ocampo M. 9. Larrosa E.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 15. Jourdan E. 22. Alfonso M. 14. De Leon F. 11. De Los Santos J. 10. Vera A. 18. Lopez I.
Substitutes
22. Acosta F. 27. Camacho S. 11. Falconis O. 13. Iraola F. 7. Leandro Barcia 33. Rodriguez F. (G) 26. Sequeira L. 17. Silvestre F. 19. Techera F. 3. Vidal F.	19. Barone F. 6. Cabrera R. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez L. 27. Lopez I. 20. Mederos S. 2. Perez F. 7. Quintana J. 23. Rodriguez F.
Coaches
Silva T.	Ribas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', Jourdan E. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Cuello E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Alonso M. ↓, Camacho S. ↑,
58', Alfonso M. 🟨,
62', Jourdan E. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
62', Lopez I. ↓, Mederos S. ↑,
63', Ocampo M. ↓, Silvestre F. ↑,
63', Mederos S. 🟨,
65', Cuello E. 🟨,
71', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
72', Vera A. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
78', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
80', Caceres S. ↓, Falconis O. ↑,
80', Larrosa E. ↓, Acosta F. ↑,
88', Silvestre F. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Recently, Cerro has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:31. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.06.25	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro	0:0 ✺
19.05.25	Boston River - Cerro	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
27.04.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	Abandoned ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LTTL?
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
26.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
03.02.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
26.11.24	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	1:0
26.05.24	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	3:2
Uruguay Copa
06.03.24	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.10.23	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
25.02.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	3:2
20.01.21	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	1:2

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