Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 2

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Venezuela	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.35	Watch
	2.7	3	2.55
	2.95	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.91	3.05	2.25
	2.99	3.11	2.44	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	3.04	3.08	2.41	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.18)	3.07 ↓ (3.24)	2.41 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
31.5%

Draw
30.1%

Defensor Sporting
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

28.8%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

28.1%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Defensor Sporting (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Defensor Sporting (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Defensor Sporting (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 15. Jourdan E. 22. Alfonso M. 14. De Leon F. 10. Vera A. 11. De Los Santos J. 18. Lopez I.	12. Dawson K. (G) 31. Furtado N. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 15. Viacava J. 16. Alvarez J. 45. Ginella F. 6. Amaro M. 23. Biscayzacu X. 10. Abaldo M. 21. Prieto K. 9. Gomez M.
Substitutes
19. Barone F. 6. Cabrera R. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez L. 27. Lopez I. 20. Mederos S. 2. Perez F. 7. Quintana J. 23. Rodriguez F.	19. Abreu D. 11. Agazzi L. 8. Altez K. 22. Barco A. 5. Barrios G. 90. Cambon A. 1. Machado L. (G) 59. Montoya W. 14. Pacifico P. 26. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Ribas J.	Ithurralde I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Biscayzacu X. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Biscayzacu X. ⚽,
26', Jourdan E. 🟨,
38', 1 - 2, Almeida C. ⚽,
45+5', Alfonso M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Biscayzacu X. 🟨,
60', Ginella F. 🟨,
62', Gomez M. 🟨,
63', Furtado N. 🟨,
64', Prieto K. ↓, Agazzi L. ↑,
65', Furtado N. ↓, Barrios G. ↑,
68', Lopez I. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
68', Cabrera F. ↓, Cabrera R. ↑,
72', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
75', Biscayzacu X. ↓, Montoya W. ↑,
75', Ginella F. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
77', Alfonso M. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
77', Vera A. ↓, Mederos S. ↑,
81', Alvarez J. 🟥,
81', Jourdan E. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
83', Abaldo M. ↓, Pacifico P. ↑,
90+2', Perez F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1.

River Plate is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Defensor Sporting has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 0.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.05.25	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
26.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	3:2 ✺
18.05.25	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
08.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
16.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
19.07.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	0:1
14.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Uruguay Copa
10.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.11.23	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	0:1
24.06.23	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1

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