Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 1

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Montevideo City Torque		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.28	3.4	2.28
	3.29	3.36	2.16	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.26	3.26	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (3.12)	3.29 ↑ (3.21)	2.18 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo City Torque
29%

Draw
28.3%

Nacional Montevideo
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

29.1%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27.3%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Montevideo City will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torgnascioli F. (G) 17. Aguero E. 24. Kagelmacher G. (C) 2. Romero F. 26. Silvera F. 5. Pizzichillo F. 14. Kociubinski B. 20. Montes G. 10. Obregon E. 9. Rodriguez S. 18. Lecchini R.	1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 32. Viera T. 21. Candido C. 30. Barcia B. 10. dos Santos A. 23. Rodriguez L. 19. De Los Santos J. 11. Silvera M. 9. Gomez M.
Substitutes
15. Busquets E. 32. Caceres S. 11. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L. 31. Munoz A. 21. Perez N. 30. Quintana J. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 3. Silva K. 27. Taran J.	6. Boggio L. 15. Calione P. 20. Carneiro G. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 14. Lodeiro N. 7. Lopez N. 18. Nunez P. 77. Rodriguez N. 25. Suarez I. (G) 27. Veron T.
Coaches
Mendez M.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Lecchini R. ⚽,
32', Silvera F. 🟨,
36', Kociubinski B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 1 - 1, Candido C. ⚽,
56', 1 - 2, Silvera M. ⚽,
62', Pizzichillo F. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑,
67', De Los Santos J. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
67', Kociubinski B. ↓, Caceres S. ↑,
72', Carneiro G. 🟨,
73', Da Silva N. 🟨,
73', Silvera M. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
73', dos Santos A. ↓, Boggio L. ↑,
81', Silvera F. ↓, Busquets E. ↑,
81', Lecchini R. ↓, Dure L. ↑,
81', Kagelmacher G. ↓, Silva K. ↑,
86', Barcia B. 🟨,
90+1', Barcia B. ↓, Calione P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montevideo City won 1.

Montevideo City is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nacional will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Montevideo City won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:37. (average 1.2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Montevideo City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.3:2.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Palestino	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Montevideo City Torque	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Boston River	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTLW
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
28.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	2:3
02.08.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	5:2
01.06.25	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:2
02.02.25	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:0
Uruguay Copa
22.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	4:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.12.23	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1
14.05.23	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	0:4

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