Match Info

2. SNL - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Športni park Lendava (Lendava)


	Nafta		Ilirija Ljubljana

	1	X	2
	1.24	4.95	9.8
	1.32	4.18	8.86
	1.21	5.8	10.2
	1.09	7	30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.31)	5.48 ↑ (4.88)	14.72 ↑ (7.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nafta
76.7%

Draw
17%

Ilirija Ljubljana
6.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

18.7%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.6%

17.4%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nafta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nafta's performance.

Ilirija Ljubljana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilirija Ljubljana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nafta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilirija Ljubljana than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Ilirija (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilirija (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Prva liga (Promotion: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nafta won 2.

Nafta has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ilirija's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nafta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nafta is the obvious favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nafta won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:11. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nafta won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 2.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Nafta 1903
Slovenian 2 SNL
11.10.25	Bistrica - Nafta	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Nafta - Tabor Sežana	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Jadran Dekani - Nafta	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Nafta - Jesenice	5:1 ✺
13.09.25	Krško - Nafta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW
- Ilirija Ljubljana
Slovenian 2 SNL
12.10.25	Ilirija Ljubljana - Krka	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bistrica - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ilirija Ljubljana - Rudar Velenje	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Tabor Sežana - Ilirija Ljubljana	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ilirija Ljubljana - Slovan Ljubljana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 2 SNL
18.11.23	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	2:1
09.11.23	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:0
02.03.23	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	2:0
19.08.22	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	3:0
18.04.22	Ilirija Ljubljana - Nafta	1:0
01.10.21	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	2:1
Club Friendly
21.07.21	Nafta - Ilirija Ljubljana	3:1

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