Match Info

J3 League - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Giravanz Kitakyushu

	1	X	2
	2.65	3	2.37
	2.78	2.98	2.42
	2.91	3.15	2.56
	2.80	2.92	2.66	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.4
	2.76	2.95	2.45	Watch
	2.55	2.95	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.5)	2.98 ↑ (2.86)	2.54 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
33.4%

Draw
30.7%

Giravanz Kitakyushu
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

32%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

30.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Giravanz Kitakyushu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giravanz Kitakyushu than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Giravanz Kitakyushu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nagano Parceiro - Giravanz Kitakyushu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Nagano (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Nagano (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Matsubara S. (G) 2. Sakai S. 7. Ono Y. 3. Tomita K. 33. Ando K. 5. Hasegawa Y. 46. Koga S. 17. Kutsuna K. 10. Yamanaka R. 87. Murakami Y. 11. Shin K.	27. Tanaka Y. (G) 4. Hasegawa K. 50. Sugiyama K. 44. Tsujioka Y. 6. Hoshi K. 34. Takayoshi S. 20. Yada A. 19. Yoshihara F. 66. Takahashi D. 29. Koh S. 10. Nagai R.
Substitutes
28. Fujikawa K. 9. Fujimori R. 15. Higuchi K. 23. Lim Ji-hoon 24. Sunamori K. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 25. Tanaka K. 77. Thales 18. Ukita K.	13. Higashi R. 14. Izawa H. 11. Kiyama K. 49. Komazawa N. 28. Konomi K. 17. Okano R. 41. Sugimoto M. (G) 21. Ushinohama T. 18. Watanabe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Takahashi D. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Nagai R. ⚽, Koh S. (A),
24', Shin K. ↓, Ukita K. ↑,
25', Ono Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Nagai R. ↓, Watanabe S. ↑,
61', Takahashi D. ↓, Komazawa N. ↑,
67', Koh S. ↓, Okano R. ↑,
72', Koga S. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
72', Kutsuna K. ↓, Fujimori R. ↑,
75', Hasegawa Y. 🟨,
80', Yoshihara F. ↓, Konomi K. ↑,
80', Yada A. ↓, Kiyama K. ↑,
82', Ando K. ↓, Thales ↑,
82', Murakami Y. ↓, Lim Ji-hoon ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Lim Ji-hoon ⚽, Thales (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 1.

Nagano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Giravanz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Giravanz has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagano won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Giravanz Kitakyushu - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 31.43%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
24.08.25	Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro	6:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nagano Parceiro - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Nagano Parceiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLLWT
- Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nara Club	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
21.07.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
22.02.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nagano Parceiro	2:0
16.11.24	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nagano Parceiro	1:1
27.04.24	Nagano Parceiro - Giravanz Kitakyushu	3:2
19.11.23	Nagano Parceiro - Giravanz Kitakyushu	2:2
24.06.23	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nagano Parceiro	1:1
28.08.22	Nagano Parceiro - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0
13.03.22	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nagano Parceiro	0:2

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