Match Info

J3 League - Round 24

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Nagano Parceiro

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	5
	1.42	4.15	6.1	Watch
	1.46	4.71	5.9
	1.42	4.27	7.41	Watch
	1.55	3.5	5
	1.5	4.37	5.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.51)	4.13 ↓ (4.41)	5.86 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
62.1%

Draw
22.3%

Nagano Parceiro
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

20.8%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

19.5%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kagoshima United will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 4. Hirose K. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K. 27. Yamaguchi T. 5. Gaudencio 20. Endo M. 13. Kondo Y. 18. Kawamura K.	21. Matsubara S. (G) 2. Sakai S. 7. Ono Y. 24. Sunamori K. 17. Kutsuna K. 5. Hasegawa Y. 46. Koga S. 8. Kondo T. 77. Thales 28. Fujikawa K. 18. Ukita K.
Substitutes
8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 23. Kojima R. 92. Nduka C. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 21. Soma J. 10. Take S. 16. Yamauchi K. (G) 36. Yonezawa R.	33. Ando K. 87. Murakami Y. 11. Shin K. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 25. Tanaka K. 3. Tomita K. 10. Yamanaka R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Kawamura K. ⚽,
41', 2 - 0, Kawamura K. ⚽, Sugii H. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Kutsuna K. ↓, Ando K. ↑,
46', Fujikawa K. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
46', Thales ↓, Murakami Y. ↑,
47', 3 - 0, Kondo Y. ⚽, Yoshio K. (A),
51', 4 - 0, Kawamura K. (Pen),
63', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
63', Kondo Y. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
66', 5 - 0, Sugii H. ⚽, Rodrigo Angelotti (A),
67', Ukita K. ↓, Shin K. ↑,
73', Kondo T. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
74', Kawamura K. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
74', Hirose K. ↓, Soma J. ↑,
85', Yoshio K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
90', 6 - 0, Nduka C. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 3.

Kagoshima United has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Nagano has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Kagoshima United is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Kagoshima United will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Kagoshima United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
16.08.25	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	3:0 ✺
26.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kagoshima United	2:3 ✺
21.07.25	Kagoshima United - Osaka	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWTW
- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
16.08.25	Nagano Parceiro - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Ryūkyū - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Nagano Parceiro	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Osaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
06.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:3
13.08.23	Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro	1:2
18.06.23	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:2
01.10.22	Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro	4:1
29.04.22	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	2:1
27.11.21	Kagoshima United - Nagano Parceiro	0:2
30.05.21	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:2

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