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Current Win Probability
Nagano Parceiro 29.5%
Draw 26.6%
Ryūkyū 44%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
38.4%
27.9%
33.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39%
27.5%
33.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nagano Parceiro's form might have worsened.
Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ryūkyū's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagano Parceiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ryūkyū, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Tajiri K. (G) 26. Nakata S. 16. Ishii K. 13. Tsukegi Y. (C) 25. Tanaka K. 30. Nojima K. 22. Yoshida K. 15. Higuchi K. 14. Kutsuna K. 11. Shin K. 19. Shoji H.
1. Sato H. (G) 14. Suzuki J. (C) 27. Funabashi Y. 8. Horiuchi H. 24. Kawaguchi N. 46. Ikeda R. 13. Iwamoto S. 17. Kato Y. 23. Sota K. 11. Ishiura T. 19. Teruuchi T.
Substitutes
39. Ando K. 28. Fujikawa K. 77. Morita D. 21. Nakano K. (G) 7. Ono Y. 9. Osaki S. 3. Tomita K. 24. Watanabe Z. 10. Yamanaka R.
9. Asakawa H. 35. Chiba K. 16. Ihori K. 55. Koki Y. 33. Miyamoto R. (G) 7. Motegi S. 32. Takayanagi F. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 3. Yoshida H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Nakata S. ↓, Watanabe Z. ↑,
61', Shin K. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
61', Teruuchi T. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
62', Iwamoto S. ↓, Takayanagi F. ↑,
66', Suzuki J. 🟨,
69', Suzuki J. ↓, Yoshida H. ↑,
74', Kutsuna K. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
74', Nojima K. ↓, Morita D. ↑,
82', Higuchi K. ↓, Ando K. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Kawaguchi N. ⚽, Kato Y. (A),
85', Ishiura T. ↓, Koki Y. ↑,
86', Sota K. ↓, Ihori K. ↑,
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 9th and 12th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 0.
In recent outings, Nagano has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Ryūkyū has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Ryūkyū could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Nagano has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:12 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nagano against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
9
Ryukyu
13
6
2
5
16:15
1
20
11
Nagano
13
5
2
6
17:19
-2
17
Last Results with these Odds
Ryūkyū - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.72%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.