Match Info

J3 League - Round 36

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Tegevajaro Miyazaki

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.18	Watch
	3.22	3.15	2.38
	3.28	3.55	2.04	Watch
	3.11	2.99	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (3.28)	3.17 ↓ (3.55)	2.21 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
29.1%

Draw
29.1%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

26.2%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

25%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tegevajaro Miyazaki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Nagano Parceiro - Tegevajaro Miyazaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nagano will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tegevajaro Miyazaki will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Nagano (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Matsubara S. (G) 23. Lim Ji-hoon 3. Tomita K. 24. Sunamori K. 33. Ando K. 47. Kato K. 5. Hasegawa Y. 25. Tanaka K. 28. Fujikawa K. 8. Kondo T. 11. Shin K.	31. Okamoto M. (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 28. Manabe H. 39. Shimokawa Y. 41. Sakai S. 50. Yasuda K. 8. Rikiyasu S. 10. Inoue R. 11. Hashimoto K. 18. Yoshizawa S.
Substitutes
20. Kano H. 46. Koga S. 13. Konishi H. 17. Kutsuna K. 35. Lee S. 2. Sakai S. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 18. Ukita K. 10. Yamanaka R.	35. Egawa G. 34. Kawai T. 32. Lee Chung-won (G) 42. Matsumoto K. 6. Okuma K. 47. Okumura K. 4. Sakurai F. 45. Tanaka S. 27. Watanabe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Yoshizawa S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rikiyasu S. ↓, Kawai T. ↑,
61', Shin K. ↓, Ukita K. ↑,
61', Kondo T. ↓, Lee S. ↑,
70', Ando K. ↓, Kano H. ↑,
70', Kato K. ↓, Koga S. ↑,
82', Inoue R. ↓, Okumura K. ↑,
90', Tanaka K. ↓, Kutsuna K. ↑,
90+1', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Nagano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagano won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 2.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Nagano Parceiro - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.31%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
10.11.25	Osaka - Nagano Parceiro	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kochi United	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Nagano Parceiro - Azul Claro Numazu	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Nara Club - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
13.10.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWLW
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
09.11.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
05.11.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nara Club	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Gainare Tottori - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:4 ✺
19.10.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Tochigi City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
16.02.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagano Parceiro	0:1
17.08.24	Nagano Parceiro - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	3:1
06.05.24	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagano Parceiro	0:1
02.12.23	Nagano Parceiro - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:2
04.03.23	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagano Parceiro	0:2
24.07.22	Nagano Parceiro - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	3:2
05.06.22	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagano Parceiro	1:0

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