Match Info

J3 League - Round 31

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Tegevajaro Miyazaki

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.1	2.42	Watch
	2.71	3.26	2.42
	2.35	3.38	2.82	Watch
	2.65	3.08	2.43	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.23)	3.22 ↑ (3.12)	2.56 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
36.1%

Draw
28.3%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

29%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

29.3%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tegevajaro Miyazaki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tegevajaro Miyazaki will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tegevajaro Miyazaki: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tegevajaro Miyazaki (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tegevajaro Miyazaki (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Matsumoto Yamaga (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 1 - 25%). Tegevajaro Miyazaki (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 16. Miyabe T. 44. Nonomura T. 36. Matsumura G. 40. Higuchi D. 46. Yasunaga R. 18. Ohashi H. 17. Yamamoto R. 23. Taki Y. 42. Tanaka S. 14. Ando T.	31. Okamoto M. (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 28. Manabe H. 35. Egawa G. 39. Shimokawa Y. 41. Sakai S. 34. Kawai T. 8. Rikiyasu S. 47. Okumura K. 58. Take H. 11. Hashimoto K.
Substitutes
43. Hayashi M. 35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 30. Kokubu R. 7. Mawatari K. 41. Murakoshi K. 22. Saso K. 19. Sugita H. 15. Yamamoto K.	20. Ano M. 10. Inoue R. 32. Lee Chung-won (G) 42. Matsumoto K. 6. Okuma K. 4. Sakurai F. 45. Tanaka S. 25. Yokokubo K. 18. Yoshizawa S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Taki Y. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
35', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', 0 - 1, Take H. ⚽, Shimokawa Y. (A),
68', Yasunaga R. ↓, Hayashi M. ↑,
68', Miyabe T. ↓, Yamamoto K. ↑,
70', Rikiyasu S. 🟨,
75', Sakai S. ↓, Inoue R. ↑,
75', Kawai T. ↓, Ano M. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Hayashi M. ⚽, Ando T. (A),
80', 1 - 2, Hashimoto K. ⚽, Rikiyasu S. (A),
84', Hashimoto K. ↓, Yoshizawa S. ↑,
84', Yamamoto R. ↓, Mawatari K. ↑,
84', Ando T. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
90+3', Matsumoto Y. ↓, Sakurai F. ↑,
90+3', Take H. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
02.11.25	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
26.10.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
02.11.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nara Club	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Gainare Tottori - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:4 ✺
19.10.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Tochigi City	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:5 ✺
27.09.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Ryūkyū	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
09.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
02.11.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:0
25.02.24	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2
17.09.23	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:1
26.03.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1
12.11.22	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	4:1
10.04.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:2

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