Match Info

J3 League - Round 33

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Azul Claro Numazu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.22	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.25	3.35	3.07
	2.45	3.16	2.84	Watch
	2.19	3.28	2.97	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.42)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	2.94 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
40.2%

Draw
28.5%

Azul Claro Numazu
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

28.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Azul Claro Numazu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Azul Claro Numazu than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Nagano Parceiro - Azul Claro Numazu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Matsubara S. (G) 16. Ishii K. 3. Tomita K. 4. Gyotoku E. 33. Ando K. 46. Koga S. 23. Lim Ji-hoon 25. Tanaka K. 13. Konishi H. 8. Kondo T. 11. Shin K.	30. Gueguim G. (G) 5. Shinozaki T. 34. Miyazaki K. 7. Numata K. 10. Sato N. 14. Tokunaga K. 71. Watanabe R. 2. Miyawaki S. 24. Yanagimachi K. 11. Mori Y. 35. Mukai H.
Substitutes
28. Fujikawa K. 9. Fujimori R. 5. Hasegawa Y. 20. Kano H. 17. Kutsuna K. 35. Lee S. 24. Sunamori K. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 10. Yamanaka R.	28. Inoue K. 20. Kawamata K. 3. Lucas Sena 16. Mihara S. 19. Saito M. 23. Shirawachi K. 18. Sugai T. 9. Suzuki W. I. 1. Watanabe K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Yanagimachi K. ⚽, Mukai H. (A),
44', Gyotoku E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lim Ji-hoon ↓, Hasegawa Y. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Shin K. ⚽,
60', 2 - 1, Tokunaga K. (Own goal),
61', Mori Y. ↓, Shirawachi K. ↑,
64', Kondo T. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
74', Mukai H. ↓, Saito M. ↑,
74', Yanagimachi K. ↓, Kawamata K. ↑,
79', Shin K. ↓, Kano H. ↑,
79', Konishi H. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
84', Ishii K. ↓, Sunamori K. ↑,
87', Sato N. ↓, Lucas Sena ↑,
87', Watanabe R. ↓, Suzuki W. I. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagano won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 2.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
18.10.25	Nara Club - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
13.10.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Nagano Parceiro - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Fukushima United - Nagano Parceiro	1:4 ✺
20.09.25	Gifu - Nagano Parceiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWL
- Azul Claro Numazu
Japan J3 League
19.10.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Osaka	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Kochi United - Azul Claro Numazu	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Gifu	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Nara Club	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
18.05.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Nagano Parceiro	0:0
27.10.24	Azul Claro Numazu - Nagano Parceiro	1:1
30.03.24	Nagano Parceiro - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1
29.10.23	Nagano Parceiro - Azul Claro Numazu	3:0
28.05.23	Azul Claro Numazu - Nagano Parceiro	1:0
25.09.22	Nagano Parceiro - Azul Claro Numazu	2:1
04.05.22	Azul Claro Numazu - Nagano Parceiro	1:0

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