Match Info

Emperors Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nagoya Grampus		Roasso Kumamoto

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.9	3.4
	1.51	3.9	5
	2.18	3.2	3.25
	2.14	3.31	3.48
				Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.5
	2.14	3.36	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.5)	3.4 ↓ (3.5)	4 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
48.8%

Draw
27.7%

Roasso Kumamoto
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

25.5%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

24.8%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nagoya Grampus's form might have worsened.

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roasso Kumamoto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roasso Kumamoto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nagoya Grampus - Roasso Kumamoto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Kumamoto (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Kumamoto (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 77. Junker K. 33. Kikuchi T. 20. Mikuni K. 44. Mori S. 14. Morishima T. 3. Sato Y. 8. Shiihashi K. 55. Tokumoto S. 11. Yamagishi Y.	1. Sato S. (G) 17. Fujii K. 4. Hakamata Y. 6. Iwashita W. 8. Kamimura S. 10. Konagaya C. 28. Kumashiro K. 15. Mishima S. 3. Onishi R. 14. Shiohama R. 21. Toyoda A.
Substitutes
9. Asano Y. 6. Kawazura A. 18. Nagai K. 27. Nakayama K. 2. Nogami Y. 30. Sugiura S. 16. Takeda Y. (G) 17. Uchida T. 66. Yamanaka R.	5. Abe K. 18. Handai M. 25. Kobayashi K. 2. Kuroki K. 20. Osaki S. 24. Ri T. 23. Sato Y. (G) 7. Takemoto Y. 19. Watanabe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Iwashita W. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Junker K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Mori S. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
61', Morishima T. ↓, Uchida T. ↑,
66', Konagaya C. ↓, Osaki S. ↑,
66', Toyoda A. ↓, Abe K. ↑,
69', 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Osaki S. ⚽,
74', Junker K. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
80', 🟨,
83', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Asano Y. ⚽,
86', Mishima S. ↓, Kuroki K. ↑,
86', Shiohama R. ↓, Handai M. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Nagoya has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kumamoto is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nagoya is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nagoya won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
28.06.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Nagoya Grampus - Veroskronos Tsuno	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWTLW
- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Blaublitz Akita - Roasso Kumamoto	3:2 ✺
06.07.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Consadole Sapporo - Roasso Kumamoto	3:2 ✺
22.06.25	Roasso Kumamoto - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
30.07.17	Roasso Kumamoto - Nagoya Grampus	0:1
01.04.17	Nagoya Grampus - Roasso Kumamoto	5:1

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