Match Info

J1 League - Round 23

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.9	3.4	Watch
	2.1	2.95	3.75
	2.28	2.92	3.36	Watch
	2.44	3	3.53
				Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.75
	2.37	3	3.43	Watch
	2.08	2.98	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.17)	2.95 ↓ (3.05)	3.57 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
41.8%

Draw
31.9%

Tokyo Verdy
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

31.4%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

31.8%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tokyo Verdy (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Pisano A. (G) 70. Hara T. 20. Mikuni K. 2. Nogami Y. 7. Izumi R. 15. Inagaki S. 8. Shiihashi K. 55. Tokumoto S. 14. Morishima T. 18. Nagai K. 11. Yamagishi Y.	1. Matheus Vidotto (G) 6. Miyahara K. 23. Tsunashima Y. 3. Taniguchi H. 22. Onaga H. 7. Morita K. 16. Hirakawa R. 2. Fukazawa D. 14. Fukuda Y. 8. Saito K. 40. Arai Y.
Substitutes
77. Junker K. 26. Kato G. 33. Kikuchi T. 10. Mateus 44. Mori S. 27. Nakayama K. 3. Sato Y. 1. Schmidt D. (G) 17. Uchida T.	17. Inami T. 37. Kawasaki S. 10. Kimura Y. 25. Kumatoriya I. 19. Matsuhashi Y. 20. Meshino S. 21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 9. Someno I. 15. Suzuki K.
Coaches
Hasegawa K.	Hiroshi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Tsunashima Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Nagai K. ↓, Mateus ↑,
57', Morishima T. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
71', Arai Y. ↓, Someno I. ↑,
71', Morita K. ↓, Matsuhashi Y. ↑,
81', Mateus ↓, Junker K. ↑,
81', Saito K. ↓, Meshino S. ↑,
81', Izumi R. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
85', Fukuda Y. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
88', Nakayama K. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
90+3', Fukazawa D. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 15).

Nagoya is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tokyo Verdy's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nagoya could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Tokyo Verdy: Yamada G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo Verdy: Fukuda Y. (Injury) Sako M. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
28.06.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Nagoya Grampus - Veroskronos Tsuno	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.05.25	Nagoya Grampus - Albirex Niigata	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTLWW
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
29.06.25	Tokyo Verdy - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Tokyo Verdy - Kashiwa Reysol	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Tokyo Verdy - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
08.06.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
11.08.24	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy	1:0
22.06.24	Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
Japan J2 League
24.09.17	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy	4:1
10.06.17	Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus	2:1

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