Match Info

J1 League - Round 30

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Shonan Bellmare

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.8	4	Watch
	1.75	3.65	4.25
	1.84	3.83	4.43
	1.07	11.17	25.23	Watch
	1.79	3.86	4.27	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.71)	5 ↑ (3.85)	7.78 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
64.8%

Draw
21.4%

Shonan Bellmare
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

24.8%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nagoya Grampus's performance.

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shonan Bellmare might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nagoya Grampus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	15.4%	23.1%

Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Nagoya (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Nagoya (2.32) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Nagoya (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nagoya Grampus will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Takeda Y. (G) 17. Uchida T. 13. Fujii H. 3. Sato Y. 9. Asano Y. 15. Inagaki S. 14. Morishima T. 27. Nakayama K. 7. Izumi R. 18. Nagai K. 11. Yamagishi Y.	81. Yoshida S. (G) 66. Matsumoto H. 8. Ono K. 47. Nakano S. 50. Fujii T. 6. Ze Ricardo 25. Okuno H. 28. Ota S. 7. Onose K. 18. Ikeda M. 10. Suzuki A.
Substitutes
70. Hara T. 77. Junker K. 26. Kato G. 22. Kimura Y. 20. Mikuni K. 2. Nogami Y. 41. Ono M. 8. Shiihashi K. 21. Sugimoto D. (G)	14. Barada A. 13. Hiraoka T. 20. Ishibashi S. 27. Luiz Phellype 72. Nitta R. 22. Oiwa K. 15. Okuno K. 1. Popp W. (G) 37. Suzuki Y.
Coaches
Hasegawa K.	Yamaguchi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Inagaki S. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Nagai K. ⚽,
45+3', 3 - 0, Yamagishi Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ikeda M. ↓, Hiraoka T. ↑,
46', Ze Ricardo ↓, Okuno K. ↑,
46', Ota S. ↓, Nitta R. ↑,
46', Fujii T. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
47', Okuno K. 🟨,
54', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
56', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
62', Izumi R. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
62', Onose K. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
72', Nagai K. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
72', Asano Y. ↓, Kato G. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽,
84', Okuno H. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nagoya is the team to beat.

There will not play in Nagoya: Hara T. (Injury) Kawazura A. (Ankle Injury) Kikuchi T. (Knee Injury) Mateus (Ankle Injury) Schmidt D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Shonan Bellmare: Oda Y. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
13.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:4 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Nagoya Grampus - Kawasaki Frontale	3:4 ✺
16.08.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLLL
- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
13.09.25	Kashima Antlers - Shonan Bellmare	3:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
07.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare	4:1 ✺
03.09.25	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
24.08.24	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	0:1
16.06.24	Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare	1:1
11.11.23	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
23.04.23	Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare	2:2
02.07.22	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	0:0
06.04.22	Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare	2:1

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