Match Info

J1 League - Round 7

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.7	1.96	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.1
	3.35	3.6	1.98	Watch
	3.43	3.98	2.09
	3.2	3.91	2.06	Watch
	3.25	3.6	1.95
	3.26	3.8	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.9)	3.71 ↓ (3.94)	2.02 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
28.4%

Draw
25.3%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

24%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

24.1%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hiroshima: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Pisano A. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 31. Takamine T. 19. Koda H. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 14. Morishima T. 27. Nakayama K. 25. Marcus Vinicius 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.	1. Osako K. (G) 33. Shiotani T. 4. Araki H. 19. Sasaki S. (C) 15. Nakano S. 6. Kawabe H. 14. Matsumoto T. 13. Arai N. 39. Nakamura S. 9. Germain R. 17. Kinoshita K.
Substitutes
9. Asano Y. 7. Izumi R. 20. Mikuni K. 44. Mori S. 18. Nagai K. 2. Nogami Y. 1. Schmidt D. (G) 8. Shiihashi K. 55. Tokumoto S.	11. Kato M. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 41. Maeda N. 40. Ohara M. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 16. Shichi T. 18. Suga D. 10. Suzuki A. 3. Yamasaki T.
Coaches
Petrovic M.	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Yamagishi Y. ⚽,
13', Hara T. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
19', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
25', Arai N. 🟨,
30', Germain R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arai N. ↓, Kim Ju-Sung ↑,
46', Germain R. ↓, Suzuki A. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽, Kawabe H. (A),
58', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Izumi R. ↑,
58', Koda H. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
67', Sasaki S. ↓, Shichi T. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Kimura Y. ⚽, Takamine T. (A),
72', Petrovic M. 🟨,
75', Kawabe H. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
84', Shiotani T. ↓, Ohara M. ↑,
85', Nogami Y. ↓, Mikuni K. ↑,
86', Morishima T. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hiroshima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:27. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 10.48% Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8:2	6	8
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.61%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.38%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
14.03.26	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
01.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLLW
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
14.03.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
11.03.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Johor Darul Takzim	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:4
Japan J1 League
28.06.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	1:2
20.04.25	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1
Japan J League Cup
08.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	1:3 penalties
04.09.24	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1
Japan J1 League
17.08.24	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2
06.05.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	2:3

Upcoming Matches