Match Info

CAF Confederation Cup - Round 3

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Nyayo National Stadium (Nairobi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Canada	beIN Connect
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Nairobi United		Azam

	1	X	2
	3.9	2.7	2.05	Watch
	3.35	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.7	3.15	2.08
	4.50	2.09	2.66	Watch
	3.4	2.88	2.05
	4.17	2.89	2.19	Watch
	3.66	2.85	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↑ (2.1)	2.82 ↑ (2.7)	2.18 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi United
24.4%

Draw
32.9%

Azam
42.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

33.3%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

34.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nairobi United's form might have worsened.

Azam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Azam's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+19.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nairobi United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Azam than the current prediction. (-19.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Azam, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Nairobi United - Azam Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nairobi United will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Azam will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Azam (4.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Azam (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Mohammed E. (G) 12. Otiende K. 34. Ogutu L. 4. Otieno J. (C) 2. Mainge Y. 24. Owino L. 25. Okal R. 29. Odhiambo D. 35. Machaka E. 7. Ochieng O. 22. Karamor M.	28. Foba Z. (G) 5. Mwaikenda L. (C) 14. Lawi L. 3. Diaby Y. 12. Msindo P. 21. Zayd Y. 35. Mkami H. M. 18. Diakite C. 6. Toto F. 23. Nado I. 30. Kitambala J.
Substitutes
15. Biko S. 21. Kizza M. 17. Magare B. 10. Muhadjiri H. 32. Oduor K. (G) . Omala D. 8. Tito 3. Waibi C.	17. Abubakar A. 2. Akaminko J. 20. Chilambo N. 24. Fuentes Mendoza Y. D. 4. Landry Z. 32. Manula A. S. (G) 34. Mzee M. 7. Sereri Z. 25. Twalib N.
Coaches
Ramadhan Gadhiyaka S. A.	Ibenge F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Odhiambo D. ⚽, Karamor M. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Kitambala J. ⚽, Diaby Y. (A),
45+1', Ochieng O. ↓, Waibi C. ↑,
45+5', Waibi C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diakite C. ↓, Sereri Z. ↑,
46', Karamor M. ↓, Ochieng W. ↑,
73', Diaby Y. ↓, Twalib N. ↑,
78', Machaka E. ↓, Tito ↑,
78', Okal R. ↓, Muhadjiri H. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Mohammed E. (Own goal),
83', Msindo P. ↓, Landry Z. ↑,
86', Kitambala J. ↓, Mzee M. ↑,
88', Ogutu L. 🟨,

Preview

Nairobi United has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Azam is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nairobi United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nairobi United has had a series of away games.

Nairobi United is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
19.01.26	Police FC - Nairobi United	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Kenya CB - Nairobi United	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi United	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Nairobi United - AFC Leopards	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Shabana - Nairobi United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWTLW
- Azam FC
Tanzanian Premier League
20.01.26	Azam - Singida Fountain Gate	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Azam - Coastal Union	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.01.26	Azam - Simba	1:0 ✺
31.12.25	Singida Black Stars - Azam	1:1 ✺
Tanzanian Premier League
07.12.25	Simba - Azam	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWWTW

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