Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Ulinzi Stars		Nairobi United

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.58	2.98
	2.6	2.64	3.03	Watch
	2.6	2.4	3
	2.58	2.61	2.92
	2.42	2.66	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.51)	2.58 ↓ (2.81)	3.01 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulinzi Stars
35.1%

Draw
34.9%

Nairobi United
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

32.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

32.4%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulinzi Stars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Nairobi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulinzi Stars than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Ulinzi Stars - Nairobi United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Omala D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 11).

Ulinzi Stars is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nairobi United has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nairobi United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Ulinzi Stars - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulinzi Stars
Kenyan Premier League
22.12.25	Ulinzi Stars - Posta Rangers	3:0 ✺
18.12.25	AFC Leopards - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
11.12.25	Ulinzi Stars - Kenya CB	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ulinzi Stars - Bandari	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLT
- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
07.01.26	Nairobi United - AFC Leopards	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Shabana - Nairobi United	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Nairobi United - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
17.12.25	Tusker - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Nairobi United - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWTWT

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